The US: Trump concerto
Also: the Pacific, Ukraine, Russia, the Sahel, and the Red Sea.
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UNITED STATES. Trump concerto
More countries are playing to the former president's tune.
Senate Republicans followed party leaders Wednesday in suggesting Nikki Hayley drop out of the presidential primary. Former contenders Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy have all endorsed lead candidate Donald Trump.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump's wins in Iowa and New Hampshire make his candidacy almost certain. As Americans adjust to another Trump-Biden contest, governments abroad are planning for a potential Trump win. While headlines have focussed on defiant comments from liberals like Justin Trudeau and Christine Lagarde, others are pre-emptively adjusting policy, whether in NATO spending commitments, climate rhetoric, or diplomatic outreach to his campaign.
FOR BUSINESS.The US will remain preeminent, even under an isolationist president. Most governments will try to find a way to work with Trump. But before the vote, few will be willing to explicitly endorse him. The risk to Joe Biden is that governments will be unwilling to take actions or sign agreements that annoy his key rival. US adversaries, from Russia to Iran to North Korea, may also pursue further brinksmanship in the hope it results in doing a ‘deal’ in 2025.
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THE PACIFIC. Islands in a storm
Renewed worries of a pivot to China cross the Pacific.
Tuvalu would review its ties with Taiwan after elections this week, its finance minister said Wednesday. Two Fijian ministers linked to an alleged sex and drugs scandal have been placed under internal investigation, Suva said Tuesday.
INTELLIGENCE. One of Taiwan’s remaining allies, Tuvalu is openly discussing a switch to China even before Friday's poll. Should Tuvalu switch, only Palau and the Marshall Islands will recognise Taiwan in the Pacific. Fiji, while having never recognised Taiwan, is meanwhile feared to be wavering on its recent pivot to the West as its 13-month-old government faces a fresh crisis. Japan's foreign minister is said to be visiting Suva next month to shore up ties.
FOR BUSINESS. Following Nauru’s switch last week, and amid concern Guatemala’s new president will be compelled to switch too, the US Compact States of Palau and Marshall Islands will look lonely in a sea of Chinese recognition. This will vex Washington, but it’s a potential disaster for Taipei, which risks being rapidly reduced to the status of an Abkhazia, Kurdistan or Transdniestria, should no UN-recognised state wish to be left as its last ally standing.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Three strikes
Kyiv endures a week of bad news.
Moscow said Wednesday a plane with 65 Ukrainian POWs headed for a swap had been downed by Kyiv. Imagery showed Russia had breached the city of Avdiivka. Debate continued whether French mercenaries were killed in strikes last week.
INTELLIGENCE. The alleged strike on a Russian plane heading to a prisoner swap could prove doubly damaging for Volodymyr Zelensky as Ukrainian soldiers, angry over a rumoured replacement of their popular military chief, Valery Zaluzhny, begin to blame the intelligence presumably provided by Zelensky’s close advisor Kyrylo Budanov, who is Zaluzhny’s speculated successor. Russian gains in Avdiivka and discord over foreign fighters are weighing on Kyiv.
FOR BUSINESS. Chiang Kai-shek said war was largely a matter of morale (he lost to Mao Zedong). Morale was high in Ukraine's armed forces in 2022 but has fallen sharply over the last year. Reliance on fickle foreign support requires an almost impossible record of success and every mistake or setback risks further harming the cause. Despite renewed pledges from Europe, countries elsewhere, particularly in the South, are now unsentimentally backing away.
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THE SAHEL. RUSSIA. Lifeboat diplomacy
Moscow wins despot hearts and minds.
The president of French ally Chad met Vladimir Putin on Wednesday. Russian troops began a deployment in Burkina Faso. Canadian commandos have left Niger, Ottawa said Monday, following the earlier departure of French personnel.
INTELLIGENCE. Russia’s seemingly improbable success in the Sahel follows decades of Western neglect and two years of rapid-fire coups (yet another coup attempt was launched in Burkina last week). Yet the potential fall of Chad to Russia’s side is particularly troubling as its strategic location in the centre of Africa’s north could give Moscow an uninterrupted bridge from the Red Sea to the Atlantic, if and when the Rapid Support Forces claim victory in Sudan.
FOR BUSINESS. In a visit to Nigeria, Antony Blinken promised on Tuesday more security support to the Sahel, but this will fall deaf among the region’s militaries. Whereas the US is required by Congress to demand some semblance of reform and good governance in exchange for aid, Russia has no such qualms. Its financial inducements and gloves-off security ‘services’ conspire to make the Sahel’s operating environment even more difficult for Western firms.
THE GULF OF ADEN. Between the Devil and the Red Sea
Adversaries dig in on both sides of the Bab-el-Mandeb.
Two US-flagged ships were attacked by Yemen's Houthi militia on Wednesday. The Houthis ordered US and British staff of UN and humanitarian organisations to leave. Eritrea forced a plane carrying Germany's foreign minister to divert.
INTELLIGENCE. After weeks of worsening tensions in Yemen, German attempts at regional diplomacy were foiled by a power outage at the Eritrean foreign ministry before overflight permits could be granted. Yet it’s just as possible that Eritrean pique over Western policies toward neighbouring Sudan, Ethiopia and Djibouti – which Annalena Baerbock was due to visit – were to blame. The interlinked crises on the Red Sea’s African shore continue to escalate.
FOR BUSINESS. Before the breakout of the Houthi attacks in the wake of Gaza (which gives the militia an excuse to build unrelated leverage with Saudi Arabia), the Red Sea region was already grappling with a civil war in Sudan. Since then, tensions have escalated between nearby Ethiopia and Somalia (with Eritrea also playing a role). Egypt – frustrated by its inability to act decisively on Sudan and Gaza – is meanwhile promising to intervene in the latest spat.