The US: Twice looks like carelessness

Also: Ukraine, Russia, Italy, Britain, Israel, Palestine, and the Horn of Africa.

Untitled, J.F. Kernan, c1937, oil on canvas, private collection.

In today’s dispatch:

• UNITED STATES. The Secret Service is under fire again.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Pressure continues over long-range missiles.

• ITALY. BRITAIN. Starmer and Meloni look to solve a common challenge.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Iran sends a warning via the Red Sea.

• HORN OF AFRICA. Hopes for peace are dashed by a myriad of rivalries.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

UNITED STATES. Twice looks like carelessness

The Secret Service is under fire again.

A gunman was arrested Sunday after being thwarted from an alleged assassination attempt on Donald Trump at a West Palm Beach golf course. Elon Musk defended a tweet asking why no one was trying to kill Joe Biden or Kamala Harris.

INTELLIGENCE. Musk, a major defence contractor and presumed nominee for a Trump White House post, said his tweet was sarcastic, but in the febrile environment, where public figures are questioning whether this was a White House-Kyiv effort or a staged provocation by Trump himself, nothing is funny. What’s known is that the alleged assassin was a freelance recruiter for Ukrainian militias and that the Secret Service only provided “limited security”.

FOR BUSINESS. The conspiracy theories, on both sides, could rage for weeks (or until the next thing happens). Unlike the Pennsylvania attempt in July, which gave Trump a bump in the polls, Sunday’s incident may only serve to deepen distrust, though there could be a policy blowback for the US’s support to Ukraine. Biden is due to meet Volodymyr Zelensky later this month. Kyiv has distanced itself from the gunman, who appears to have held eclectic opinions.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Storm Shadows and a doubt

Pressure continues over long-range missiles.

Britain's foreign secretary said the UK "won't be bullied" by Vladimir Putin after Joe Biden demurred on allowing the use of Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia. Ukraine repeated calls for the capability, citing the opinion of a NATO admiral.

INTELLIGENCE. NATO’s principal advisor said Ukraine had the legal and military right to strike inside Russia but this doesn’t mean it’s a good idea, or