The US: Under the influence

Also: Sweden, Ukraine, the Caucasus, Haiti, and Honduras.

The Red Iceberg, 1960, Impact Comics, Catholic Catechetical Guild, St Paul, Minnesota.

In today’s dispatch:

• UNITED STATES. Washington’s pursuit of foreign agents risks backfiring.

• SWEDEN. UKRAINE. Connections are drawn as two foreign ministers quit.

• THE CAUCASUS. Moscow cuts off funding to a breakaway Georgian province.

• HAITI. The US belatedly looks to fix a crisis on its doorstep.

• HONDURAS. An extradition controversy escalates.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

UNITED STATES. Under the influence

Washington’s pursuit of foreign agents risks backfiring.

The Department of Justice charged two Russians Wednesday with illegally funding a pro-Trump social media firm. A former aide to New York Governor Kathy Hochul was arrested Tuesday after being charged with being a Chinese agent.

INTELLIGENCE. Nearly all states spy, and nearly all seek to influence the politics of others. The charges are probably true – and it’s no secret that many in the pro-Trump social media sphere are also pro-Kremlin – but the timing looks off. On the first, the charges will be characterised as another “Russia-gate” smear. On the second, calls to expel China’s New York consul (who has in any case left) could risk a repeat of the 2020 Houston/Chengdu consular crisis.

FOR BUSINESS. When the US expelled Chinese diplomats from Houston, over the theft of commercial secrets, Chinese stock markets fell 2%. New York is a more important post. So far, the crisis appears to have been contained, but any diplomatic fallout could lead to new tit-for-tat expulsions at a time when the White House seeks to stabilise the relationship and arrange a final meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, possibly at the APEC summit in Peru.

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SWEDEN. UKRAINE. They saw the sign

Connections are drawn as two foreign ministers quit.

Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom announced his resignation from politics Wednesday, saying he had been considering stepping down for some time. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also resigned Wednesday.

INTELLIGENCE. To lose one foreign minister is misfortune, but to lose two looks like carelessness. Neither provided an explanation, but