The wolf at the door
Switzerland, Canada, Mexico, the UK, China, Israel, and Palestine.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
SWITZERLAND. Davos Man awaits the president’s speech.
CANADA. Carney prods allies to wake up.
MEXICO. Sheinbaum quells concerns of an invasion.
BRITAIN. CHINA. Starmer seeks out a new eastern promise.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu responds to a shafting by his ally.
Geopolitical Dispatch is a daily strategic briefing for business leaders and investors, based on the US Presidential Daily Brief. Covering five top global developments at 5am Eastern Time, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you visibility of events in context.
SWITZERLAND. High stasis
Davos Man awaits the president’s speech.
Before heading to the World Economic Forum, Donald Trump gave an 80-minute address to White House reporters Tuesday, heralding his first year back in office. Stocks fell and bond yields spiked as the “sell America” trade returned.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s erraticism on Greenland, NATO, tariffs and migration, combined with market uncertainty in Japan, has caused a sell-off in Treasury bonds. Danish pension fund Akademiker may be in the minority in exiting the US entirely, but the idea of Wall Street as a politics-driven emerging market is going mainstream. CEOs at and beyond Davos will be waiting for his (hopefully) prepared remarks at 2:30 pm local time for a sense of where this is all going.
FOR BUSINESS. As warned by Finland’s president, Greenland has sucked all oxygen out of the WEF agenda. More accurately, it’s Trump that’s sucked all oxygen out of the economic agenda, with markets increasingly led by his social media account. Yet while this would normally give huge opportunities for insider trading, it’s the US Treasury that’s suffered most. The other side of the trade, notably gold (heavily invested by the likes of Russia), has done best.
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CANADA. Middle finger
Carney prods allies to wake up.
Mark Carney told the WEF the rules-based order was “not coming back” and “middle powers must act”. Ottawa had modelled a potential US invasion, the Globe and Mail said. Canadian troops might join exercises in Greenland, CBC said.
INTELLIGENCE. A US invasion is highly unlikely, despite Trump's trolling in the lead-