Thoughts and prayers
Iran, Israel, Palestine, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Russia, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump can’t decide what to do with his war of choice.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. While eyes are on Hezbollah, Hamas digs in.
AZERBAIJAN. The region’s alternative air corridor comes under fire.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Moscow sells oil, Kyiv sells drones, Budapest takes hostages.
UNITED STATES. As Noem is sacked, Bondi is put on notice.
IRAN. Prolonging the agony
Trump can't decide what to do with his war of choice.
Donald Trump ruled out a ground invasion, calling it a "waste", but said it would be "wonderful" if Kurdish militias did so. At least two AN/TPY-2 radar systems had been destroyed. The White House brought pastors to pray over the president.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump claims Tehran wants a deal, which the regime denies. It may be wishful thinking. While the US is overwhelmingly stronger, its loss of three MQ-9 drones, plus radars worth $2 billion, suggests Iran can still land a punch (and may be getting satellite feeds from China or Russia). Timelines are blowing out. Pete Hegseth has said the fight has “just begun”. Britain says the crisis could last for months. Flying blind, Trump is on a wing and a prayer.
FOR BUSINESS. It’s too early to predict the war’s duration or intensity. Munition and interceptor stocks on both sides remain murky. The best analysts can say is we’ll know more in a week. Even harder to predict is Trump’s next move. Talking up Iran’s naval and leadership losses, he can declare victory. Israel, however, may have other ideas. So too the Gulf. While they’ll want trade and travel to resume, they’ll be wary of leaving a bruised and angry neighbour intact.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. The Gaza of Orpheus
While eyes are on Hezbollah, Hamas digs in.
Israel warned Beirut residents to evacuate, and Hezbollah issued warnings to Israel’s northern towns, as waves of missiles hit Lebanon. Hamas had strengthened its hold on Gaza, despite losing contact with the IRGC, Israeli media said.
INTELLIGENCE. Hamas continues to slowly recover and fill the vacuum as time