Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

Threading a needle in a haystack

France, Germany, Turkey, Morocco, Mali, and Jeffrey Epstein.

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Michael Feller
Oct 31, 2025
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The gleaners, Léon Lhermitte, 1887, oil on canvas, Philadelphia Art Museum, Penn.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • FRANCE. Macron tries to find missing jewels, revenue and ratings.

  • GERMANY. TURKEY. Merz makes an awkward but consequential visit.

  • MOROCCO. A UN vote could shake the Maghreb.

  • MALI. Jihadists get close to sacking Bamako.

  • SCANDALS. Jeffrey Epstein gets harder to ignore.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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FRANCE. Treasury hunt

Macron tries to find missing jewels, revenue and ratings.

The Assembly was due to debate a wealth tax Friday after the government was blindsided by the approval of new hikes. Emmanuel Macron’s approval fell to 11%, a personal low. Five were arrested in relation to last Sunday’s Louvre heist.

INTELLIGENCE. As Macron’s polls reach those of Francois Hollande, the moment of national unity over the theft of priceless treasures has vanished over administrative blame and (unproven and likely unprovable) claims the incident was part of a broader Russian hybrid warfare campaign. Yet it’s euros in the Treasury, not necklaces in the Louvre, most are worried about. And in the absence of strong government, increasingly dangerous proposals are being aired.

FOR BUSINESS. Far left and far right parties joined to pass tax hikes on multinational revenues and digital services Tuesday. These will almost certainly be blocked, but they set the tone for tough negotiations with Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s fragile minority. A separate proposal for a wealth or “Zucman” tax is also likely to be struck down but will continue to rattle investor confidence despite a surprise lift in quarterly GDP thanks to higher defence exports.

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GERMANY. TURKEY. Do’s and döners

Merz makes an awkward but consequential visit.

Friedrich Merz reiterated Berlin’s support for Ankara’s EU membership bid during a visit to Turkey Thursday. Tayyip Erdogan asked how Germany could “not see” a “genocide” in Gaza. Both agreed to cooperate on defence and migration.

INTELLIGENCE. Politically, Merz must balance longstanding cooperation, essential to

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