Three-demented chess
Iran, India, the EU, China, the UK, and Argentina.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Tehran plays Trump as Trump plays the traders.
INDIA. Washington’s reconciliation with Delhi hits a shoal.
EUROPE. CHINA. A bargain for what’s left of the trading system.
BRITAIN. A resignation makes waves beyond Westminster.
ARGENTINA. Quick goals wear thin against Milei’s mistakes.
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IRAN. 39th time lucky
Tehran plays Trump as Trump plays the traders.
Oil fell sharply after Donald Trump declared a deal had been struck with Iran, following earlier threats to take Kharg Island and hit Iran “very hard.” Iran denied the claims. Israel said it was not party to a deal. Drones were shot down over Hormuz.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump may have sought to restore deterrence after Iran downed a US helicopter, but his latest TACO suggests he still wants a deal more than Tehran. Luckily for him, markets share his low impulse control and have rallied into the day of SpaceX’s IPO and ahead of Sunday’s cage fight on the White House lawn, oblivious to the fact that performative violence can go two ways and that, having declared a looming deal 39 times, Trump lacks an exit.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s ability to keep crying wolf opens new theories of behavioural finance. Still, he can’t continue the escalation-to-deal cycle forever before markets fade the news. This inflection could happen when physical oil stocks reach crisis levels, or when growing tensions with Israel lead to a complete break in strategy. It could also happen when more professional commodities buyers return to an irrational futures market they’ve been waiting out.
INDIA. Ships in the night
Washington's reconciliation with Delhi hits a shoal.
Delhi demanded an end to strikes on commercial vessels after the US fired missiles into a third tanker crewed by Indian nationals. An attack had earlier killed three Indian sailors. Narendra Modi was criticised for calling Trump a “friend”.
INTELLIGENCE. Attending next week’s G7 in France, Modi is due to meet Trump for