Tipping point

Ukraine, Russia, the Czech Republic, the US, Venezuela, Australia, and the Pacific.

A house of cards, Udo Keppler, 1904, illustration in Puck (54:1403), Library of Congress, Washington DC.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin warns of a war that’s already begun.

• CZECH REPUBLIC. Babis will need to compromise if he wants to govern.

• UNITED STATES. Trump uses the shutdown for unfinished business.

• VENEZUELA. Washington employs grey zone tactics of its own.

• AUSTRALIA. THE PACIFIC. Stalled defence deals get another kick.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Cards on the table

Putin warns of a war that’s already begun.

Vladimir Putin said Thursday Russia was now fighting “the entire NATO bloc” and Europe was “fuelling war hysteria.” Munich’s airport re-opened Friday after overnight drone sightings. France arrested the captain of a Russia-linked ship.

INTELLIGENCE. Putin’s comments to a forum in Sochi came after the Kremlin said it was in a “fiery conflict” with Europe, not a Cold War, and the provision of US Tomahawks to Ukraine would be a dangerous escalation. Yet Tomahawks are unlikely to be provided. There are too few available, and Kyiv lacks the sea-based launches. US Patriot defence systems are meanwhile said to be losing their effectiveness against Russian Iskander and Kinzhal missiles.

FOR BUSINESS. In laying out warnings to Europe, Putin wants to discourage the US. Reported backtracking on Tomahawks suggests this may have worked. And while his threats seem to have galvanised the region, excepting outliers like Hungary, the US remains relatively blasé. Plans to end Russian oil exports haven’t happened. Local data suggests refinery shortages are overhyped. The real risk may be a reduced taboo on attacking nuclear power sites.

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CZECH REPUBLIC. A qualified Yes

Babis will need to compromise if he wants to govern.

Voting began Friday for the Czech lower house, with Andrej Babis’s ANO (”Yes”) polling at 30%. None of the three parties so far willing to govern with ANO – the SPD, Motorists and Stacilo – appeared likely of providing a combined majority.

INTELLIGENCE. The involvement of far-right SPD, with 19 seats in the outgoing 200-