Tipping the scales
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, India, the UK, and Hungary.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump risks stumbling back to full-scale war.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Aoun has a chance to reshape a deal.
INDIA. The ‘cockroach’ movement has its breakthrough.
BRITAIN. The King of the North faces a pretender.
HUNGARY. Changes in Budapest won’t help Kyiv.
Join us tomorrow for a special briefing on Geopolitics & Al
On Tuesday 21 July at 2pm CEST, we will be hosting a special briefing on geopolitics and artificial intelligence, delving into the material foundations of AI, areas of competition and cooperation, and how the geopolitics of AI are influencing the economics - and vice versa. This is a Quarterly Briefing ordinarily reserved for corporate members, but available to all owing to the importance of, and interest in, the topic.
IRAN. Imbalance of power
Trump risks stumbling back to full-scale war.
Brent futures hit $90 a barrel after three US personnel were confirmed killed with a fourth missing. Iran was planning a ground attack on Kuwait, local analysts said. The US hit a nuclear power site and advised its citizens to leave the region.
INTELLIGENCE. A ninth night of strikes has seen hostilities move from mere tit-for-tat. With power and desalination plants now being hit, the chances of an off-ramp, even if sought, will diminish. And should Iran launch an incursion into Kuwait, a US ground offensive, whether on Bandar Abbas or its nearby islands, also becomes more likely. As Donald Trump weighs his diminishing options, the watchpoints are now whether the Houthis or Israel now re-engage.
FOR BUSINESS. The US remains the greater conventional power, but Iran retains escalation dominance and asymmetric advantages. Blocking the Bab-el-Mandeb strait or invading Kuwait – even if just to seize US hostages – risks further alienating its Arab neighbours, but Tehran may judge that bridge has already been crossed. Further, with US forces now increasingly concentrated in Jordan (hence the strikes there), Gulf Arab states may be fighting alone.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Joseph's dream
Aoun has a chance to reshape a deal.
Joseph Aoun met Marco Rubio in Washington ahead of the first visit by a Lebanese president to the White House in 20 years. Benjamin Netanyahu cancelled a visit to Washington with Lindsey Graham’s memorial postponed for 28 July.
INTELLIGENCE. Aoun has an opportunity to get in Trump’s ear before Netanyahu as