Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
ISRAEL. IRAN. Netanyahu comes to the last pre-election window.
LIBYA. EGYPT. A maritime border crosses lines further south.
TUNISIA. The home of the Arab Spring heats up again.
VENEZUELA. The post-Maduro scaffolding begins to fall.
UNITED STATES. The election goes from creepy to sinister.
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ISRAEL. IRAN. Cometh the hour
Netanyahu comes to the last pre-election window.
Brent hit $114 as Saudi Aramco evacuated headquarters staff and Russia repatriated workers from the Bushehr nuclear plant. Donald Trump accused Iran of “faking” attacks to boost oil prices. Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to “topple” Tehran.
INTELLIGENCE. The New York Times says plans are afoot for a US-Israel strike after the midterms. But Netanyahu is neck-and-neck with Gadi Eisenkot in the final days before Israel’s election on Tuesday, and for him, at least, the only opportunity to strike Iran may be this weekend. It’s unclear what this would achieve, and the IDF has told local media there’s no operational requirement, but the same would be true after 3 November, and without the political impetus.
FOR BUSINESS. Strategically, there are more reasons not to escalate, but politically, for both Trump and Netanyahu, there may be little to lose from another roll of the dice. Beyond any bump in the polls, let alone a drop in oil as Iran and the Houthis ratchet their own threats, there’d be a distraction from fresh claims of Jared Kushner hiding $1 billion in UAE funds at Israel’s central bank, or the overriding sense that nothing good has come from eight months of war.
LIBYA. EGYPT. Sea change
A maritime border crosses lines further south.
Greece and Egypt were in talks to extend their exclusive economic zones to Cyprus, Athens said, after Libya’s House of Representatives ratified an expansive boundary agreement with Turkey, agreed to by the government in Tripoli in 2019.
INTELLIGENCE. Libya’s Tobruk-based parliament, affiliated with warlord Khalifa