Tollbooth diplomacy
The US, Europe, Russia, Slovakia, Ukraine, the Philippines, China, and the DRC.
The five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. The clock ticks down to a tariff war.
EUROPE. RUSSIA. Energy policies create political crises, again.
SLOVAKIA. UKRAINE. Fico warns of a coup attempt amid growing protests.
PHILIPPINES. CHINA. Manila and Beijing shift between aggression and concession.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO. War, famine, pestilence, and death.
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UNITED STATES. For whom the toll bells
The clock ticks down to a tariff war.
Donald Trump said Thursday he would proceed with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico Saturday, but "may or may not" exclude oil. The president reiterated threats to place a 100% tariff on BRICS members if they replace the US dollar.
INTELLIGENCE. A 10% threat to China has also been reissued. Trump’s advisers are reportedly looking for off-ramps. Trump’s linking of the threats to the border and fentanyl suggests non-economic concessions will need to be found. The omens aren't good. Amid a leadership contest, Canada continues to play tough. Mexico has forced the US military to skirt its airspace in returning migrants to Guatemala. Cartels have allegedly opened fire on border patrol agents.
FOR BUSINESS. The vagueness of Trump’s threats makes for not only incoherent policy but complex negotiations, should counterparts want to avoid the tariffs. This gives them a lot of leeway of course (as Colombia found, with minimal concessions to have its threat withdrawn), but little business certainty. Hedging has begun in several ways. Gold prices are up. Stockpiling and additional orders have been placed. Mexico has upgraded its FTA with the EU.
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EUROPE. RUSSIA. Stepping on the gas
Energy policies create political crises, again.
German imports of Russian LNG rose five-fold in 2024 as the EU discussed resuming pipeline imports under a Ukraine peace agreement, the Financial Times said. Norway's coalition collapsed over disagreements on EU energy directives.
INTELLIGENCE. Energy has long been an EU fault-line, and especially since the war in Ukraine. Ahead of any peace deal,