Tough axe to follow
Iran, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and Cuba.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump resumes the sledgehammer approach.
YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. Riyadh faces narrow options.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Zelensky doubles the leadership uncertainty.
TURKEY. With the opposition split, Erdogan meets his match.
CUBA. Rubio’s report says more about him than Havana.
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IRAN. Pickaxe, meet nail
Trump resumes the sledgehammer approach.
Oil jumped after Donald Trump said he may bomb “Pickaxe Mountain”, the alleged site of Iran’s residual nuclear program, and several US B-1 bombers left the UK shortly after Andy Burnham gave Trump consent for limited use of British bases.
INTELLIGENCE. Bombing Pickaxe is unlikely to make Iran relent on Hormuz, whether it holds precious centrifuges or not. What’s for sure is that Trump could be wasting precious bunker-busters on fortified rock. And while it may give Washington a semblance of action on the nuclear file, as it remains trapped on shipping, oil and regional diplomacy, the inventory costs could outweigh any political credits in Congress as Pete Hegseth asks for another $87 billion.
FOR BUSINESS. Operation Midnight Hammer, where the US bombed three Iranian nuclear sites, effectively ending last June’s 12-day war, was seen by Trump as a win, but the circumstances today are entirely different. Rather than ending the current conflict, it could merely escalate it, prolonging whatever concurrent steps are underway for resumed talks and delaying the point at which the US can start replenishing its heavily depleted arms and oil reserves.
YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. Walking a strait gate
Riyadh faces narrow options.
Several oil tankers, including three Chinese very-large crude carriers, halted their transit through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, following a declared blockade by Yemen’s Houthis. Saudi Arabia and the UAE stressed their unity in a social media post.
INTELLIGENCE. Riyadh will want to avoid conflict while it negotiates an offramp with