Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

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Geopolitical Dispatch
Geopolitical Dispatch
Treading water

Treading water

The UK, Australia, Spain, Israel, Iran, the Korean Peninsula, and Brazil.

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Michael Feller
Jun 12, 2025
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Geopolitical Dispatch
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Treading water
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Blowing up an English submarine, Willy Stöwer, from Der Krieg... in Wort und Bild, 1916, State Library of Upper Austria, Linz.

The five things you need to know today:

  • BRITAIN. AUSTRALIA. The US reckons with its limited industrial base.

  • BRITAIN. SPAIN. Starmer strikes another EU deal.

  • ISRAEL. IRAN. A new crisis does not appear imminent.

  • KOREAN PENINSULA. Seoul and Washington eye a new start with Pyongyang.

  • BRAZIL. Musk makes up with Trump as his problems deepen with Moraes.

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BRITAIN. AUSTRALIA. Down periscope

The US reckons with its limited industrial base.

The Pentagon announced a review of the AUKUS defence deal Wednesday, ensuring it aligned with the "America First agenda". Canberra said Thursday it was confident the plan to acquire US nuclear-powered submarines would proceed..

INTELLIGENCE. AUKUS will likely survive, but not in one piece. The glaring risk is not the Trump administration's philosophical commitment but the ability for Washington to spare the submarines it has promised. Shortly after the UK's defence review, and ahead of the Australian prime minister's first meeting with Donald Trump next week, there's a chance of renegotiation to keep Washington engaged, but this appears to primarily be about US shipyard limits.

FOR BUSINESS. The tech-heavy "pillar II" of AUKUS will likely remain, but Australia and Britain may need to revise how they procure new submarines. France will be waiting for a call. The previous Australian government canned a contentious plan to buy 12 modified Barracuda-class submarines, which would have been delivered in less time for less money. The diesel-powered subs weren't perfect, but in a technologically evolving undersea theatre, nothing is.

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BRITAIN. SPAIN. Rock solid

Starmer strikes another EU deal.

The EU and Britain agreed Wednesday to allow Spanish and British officers to jointly inspect passports at Gibraltar's airport. In turn, Spanish and Gibraltarian residents would no longer need to show their passports at the land border.

INTELLIGENCE. Mirroring the role of French police at London’s Eurostar terminus, officials have solved a long-

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