Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

Trial and terror

The US, Israel, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Cambodia.

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Michael Feller
Sep 18, 2025
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Paranoia (Surrealist Figures), Salvador Dali, 1939, oil on wood panel, private collection.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • UNITED STATES. Terrorism’s broadening definition risks making it meaningless.

  • ISRAEL. SYRIA. A promised security deal seems unlikely to succeed.

  • SAUDI ARABIA. PAKISTAN. A mutual defence pact troubles the region.

  • INDONESIA. Prabowo governs like it’s 1998.

  • THAILAND. CAMBODIA. Problems reappear at the border and in Bangkok.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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UNITED STATES. Cartel before the horse

Terrorism’s broadening definition risks making it meaningless.

Donald Trump said Antifa would be designated a terrorist organisation Wednesday. Trump earlier said a third boat had been destroyed in the US’s anti-"narco-terror" operations. The Treasury's under-secretary for terrorism visited Mexico.

INTELLIGENCE. The ever-widening scope of what constitutes terrorism risks further undermining national security. Amorphous movements like Antifa, as contentious as they may be, have little in common with the cartels, or for that matter, al-Qaeda. And as with the gangs, law enforcement may be complicated by additional designations. Coming alongside a media purge and a looming executive order on political violence, it also undermines institutional trust.

FOR BUSINESS. Few legitimate firms knowingly trade with cartels or terrorists, but many do business with the mostly left-wing foundations that published a letter Wednesday critical of Trump's proposed political violence order, which could place a chilling effect on the not-for-profit sector, similar to that experienced by high-end law firms and Ivy League universities at the beginning of Trump's second term. The sector is estimated to account for 5-10% of GDP.

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ISRAEL. SYRIA. Damascene subversion

A promised security deal seems unlikely to succeed.

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said talks with Israel could lead to a breakthrough "in the coming days" but would always be difficult "between a Damascene and a Jew". Syria's foreign minister was due to meet US officials Thursday.

INTELLIGENCE. Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda commander, has been almost completely

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