Tropic thunder

Brazil, the US, Africa, the Red Sea, Taiwan, China, Cambodia, and Thailand.

The capture of Rio de Janeiro, Théodore Gudin, 1841, oil on canvas, Musée d'Histoire de Saint-Malo, France.

The five things you need to know today:

• BRAZIL. UNITED STATES. Washington's tariffs have nothing to do with trade.

• AFRICA. UNITED STATES. Trump courts the mineral-rich and vulnerable.

• RED SEA. A critical trade channel is again under fire.

• TAIWAN. CHINA. Beijing is unlikely to crash Taipei’s party.

• CAMBODIA. THAILAND. A border dispute hits the underworld.

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BRAZIL. UNITED STATES. Going south

Washington’s tariffs have nothing to do with trade.

President Lula da Silva vowed Wednesday to reciprocate Donald Trump’s threat of 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, due to start 1 August. Brazil summoned the US chargé d'affaires over Trump's statements on former leader Jair Bolsonaro.

INTELLIGENCE. Lula and Trump have been in a war of words over Bolsonaro, on trial for a coup attempt. Tariffs will escalate this to the real world. Both populist and 79, the two seem unwilling to back down. The tariffs will be more economically damaging for Brazil, which, unlike most countries, has a goods deficit with the US. But by using the tariff cudgel for a non-trade issue (and a trivial one at that), Trump has injected new uncertainty into US policymaking.

FOR BUSINESS. The tariffs will mean fewer US sales of Brazilian cars, jets and coffee, but much of this can be rerouted to China, which takes in almost triple Brazil’s exports by value. From Huawei's interest in local data centres to BYD in EV assembly, Brazil is also deepening investment ties with China. But in the long term, the US and Brazil need each other. An offramp could be via Trump offering to extradite Elon Musk for trial on social media infractions.

Ahead of President Trump’s 9 July trade deal deadline, we have outlined four scenarios for what could come next. We would love to hear your views.

AFRICA. UNITED STATES. Small five safari

Trump courts the mineral-rich and vulnerable.

Donald Trump hosted the leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal at the White House Wednesday. Trump asked the president of Liberia, a country settled by freed American slaves, where he learnt English.

INTELLIGENCE. It's been speculated the five leaders, all from Atlantic-facing states,