Truce or dare

Ukraine, Russia, Canada, the US, Greenland, Portugal, and Pakistan.

Dangerous Sport, Philip Goodwin, c. 1920s, oil on canvas, private collection, Wyoming.

The five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Washington puts the gun to the head, then aims at the foot.

• CANADA. UNITED STATES. Trump won’t climb down, but Carney can climb out.

• GREENLAND. Nuuk votes to go slow on being left in the cold.

• PORTUGAL. The centre-right government faces a snap election.

• PAKISTAN. Baloch separatists conduct their most brazen attack yet.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Ceasefire in the hole

Washington puts the gun to the head, then aims at the foot.

The US agreed to restart military and intelligence support Tuesday after Ukraine accepted a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. Marco Rubio said the "ball is now in Russia's court". A minerals deal would be concluded “as soon as possible.”

INTELLIGENCE. Moscow had vowed to only agree a ceasefire if a comprehensive deal could be landed first. With the latest proposal, Washington may think it’s called the Kremlin’s bluff, but any refusal could instead backfire on the White House, whose negotiating team is also dealing with Gaza. By making claims of Ukrainian fraud, waste and ingratitude, Donald Trump has made it difficult to pivot towards greater support. Russia may indeed hold the cards.

FOR BUSINESS. The next few days should show whether Trump’s tactics are genius or gormless. But with the minerals deal kicked down the road, the odds are on the latter. By keeping Volodymyr Zelensky out of talks (despite him travelling to Jeddah), Trump can at least blame his officials if things go wrong. But Steve Witkoff, who will reportedly meet Vladimir Putin this week, may have gotten too valuable as a point-man on virtually every global crisis.

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CANADA. UNITED STATES. Relations in the hole

Trump won’t climb down, but Carney can climb out.

The White House withdrew a threat of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium after Ontario backed off on plans to impose a 25% surcharge on electricity exports. US stocks at one point hit a 10% retrenchment from last month's high.

INTELLIGENCE. Washington, Toronto and Wall Street have backed away from the brink. It's now up to Ottawa to