Truce or dare
Israel, Iran, the G7, the South China Sea, Cambodia, Thailand, and bird flu.
The five things you need to know today:
ISRAEL. IRAN. The war becomes an absurd game of 3D chicken.
GROUP OF SEVEN. Trade is on the back burner as Trump leaves early.
SOUTH CHINA SEA. Limited bandwidth puts the operational above the strategic.
CAMBODIA. THAILAND. A border bicker escalates.
AVIAN INFLUENZA. More cases of airborne and interspecies transmission.
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ISRAEL. IRAN. To decapitate or capitulate
The war becomes an absurd game of 3D chicken.
Donald Trump wrote "Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!" late Monday, spiking oil prices. The US Air Force sent 31 refuelling aircraft to Ramstein and other European bases. Speaker Mike Johnson cancelled a visit to Israel.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump has again wrongfooted markets, which on Monday overegged signs of a climbdown, amid unconfirmed reports Tehran had sought US intercession, and that Steve Witkoff was again planning to meet Iran's foreign minister. But there's nothing to guarantee US action one way or the other. Trump's social media post seems more a reaction to a Steve Bannon podcast with "kooky" Tucker Carlson, urging Trump to stay out of the conflict.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump's base is divided on Israel, and this, more than strategy, will inform his next steps. On the one hand, he must appease the isolationists, on the other, he must refute claims he "always chickens out". It's a dilemma familiar to the similarly mercurial Benjamin Netanyahu, who narrowly avoided a vote of no confidence only last week. Tehran's elite are also divided, and the hardliners (who are still alive) will be even more committed to fight to the end.
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GROUP OF SEVEN. Bigger fissiles to fry
Trade is on the back burner as Trump leaves early.
Donald Trump left the G7 Summit early Monday night to attend to "important matters". The president asked his situation room be prepared for his return, Fox News said. Leaders disagreed on Russia, which Trump said should rejoin the group.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump's early departure left only half an hour for Japan, which had
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