Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Efforts to reconcile Trump with Kyiv miss the point.
IRAN. The energy crisis spreads as the war goes in circles.
CHINA. EUROPE. Brussels will struggle to compete on Beijing’s terms.
INDIA. Modi’s agenda stumbles as the cockroaches return.
INDONESIA. Prabowo’s under fire from the region and investors.
You’re reading one of today’s five analyses.
Subscribe to read all five, every weekday.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin stark relief
Efforts to reconcile Trump with Kyiv miss the point.
UK defence minister Wes Streeting said he welcomed the restoration of Starshield services for Kyiv after talks with Pete Hegseth. Reuters said the decision to suspend the system was made in the White House, not the Pentagon or SpaceX.
INTELLIGENCE. The military satellite system was seen as vital for Ukraine’s offence and defence against Russia, but as Moscow rolls out its Volna Kupol Garant jammers, which can disrupt services across a 20-square-kilometre grid, and with Ukraine now out of Patriot interceptors, this latest wobble in US support is potentially a death knell. By now, it should be abundantly clear Donald Trump won’t serve Ukraine’s interests, or probably anyone’s, except his own.
FOR BUSINESS. With allies like Washington, Kyiv doesn’t need enemies. Unless Europe is prepared to fully fill the gap left in communications, missiles, interceptors, ammunition, and intelligence, it may as well join the efforts to sue for peace. Trump is otherwise too unreliable to bother dealing with. Diplomatic coaxing from NATO or Britain will simply prolong the crisis. And indeed, it could merely put London and Brussels in Moscow’s sights, or worse, Washington’s.
IRAN. Beyond petroleum
The energy crisis spreads as the war goes in circles.
Frankfurt Airport denied it lacked kerosene after Bild said Lufthansa told pilots to carry extra fuel. Supplies were restored to Bali after days-long petrol station queues were blamed on distribution issues. Pakistan warned of a winter gas crunch.
INTELLIGENCE. Shortages are being reported from Switzerland to Kenya to