Turkey: Ottoman on a mission

Also: Italy, China, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, and the US.

Suleiman the Magnificent of horseback, Hans Eworth, 1549, oil on panel, collection of the Earl of Yarborough, Lincolnshire.

In today’s dispatch:

• TURKEY. Erdogan talks with Armenia, threatens Israel and sends troops to Somalia.

• ITALY. CHINA. Rome and Beijing invoke Marco Polo in a bid to repair ties.

• HUNGARY. POLAND. A split deepens along NATO’s eastern front.

• BULGARIA. Sofia makes a final try at avoiding a seventh election.

• UNITED STATES. Joe Biden shows further signs of imminent retirement.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

TURKEY. Ottoman on a mission

Erdogan talks with Armenia, threatens Israel and sends troops to Somalia.

Israel urged NATO to expel Turkey Monday after Tayyip Erdogan threatened to "enter" Israel. Turkish and Armenian officials met Tuesday for normalisation talks. Ankara's parliament approved a deployment of troops to Mogadishu.

INTELLIGENCE. President Erdogan is retracing the Ottoman Empire’s borders, and with almost as much bombast. His threat to Israel “just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya" is absurd but it poses a diplomatic headache for Washington, nor will it be appreciated in Yerevan, whose diplomats are speaking with Turkey for the first time since 2022. The deployment to Somalia is more serious, particularly amid tensions in Ethiopia and Yemen.

FOR BUSINESS. As he builds influence in Iraq and attempts to repair ties with Syria, Erdogan is atop several highwires. Rhetorical flourishes are routine, but increased belligerence to NATO allies (last week he hinted at a base in Northern Cyprus, notwithstanding recent outreach to Greece) could rattle investors. Turkey is attempting to repair its budget and stabilise the lira, which remains at all-time lows. It hopes to become an entry point for Chinese firms into the EU.

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ITALY. CHINA. Meloni on a mission

Rome and Beijing invoke Marco Polo in a bid to repair ties.

Giorgia Meloni met Xi Jinping in Beijing Monday, saying Italy could play an "important role" for China in the EU. Citing the Silk Road, Xi said, "If countries are inter-connected, they will advance; if they are closed, they will retreat."

INTELLIGENCE. Xi would ideally want Italy to return to the Belt and Road Initiative, which Meloni pulled out of last year, but