Ukraine, Europe: Bottes on the ground
Also: Russia, China, Israel, Palestine, Haiti, and the UK.
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UKRAINE. EUROPE. Bottes on the ground
Calls to arms may presage deployment.
It was "not too late for Ukraine to prevail", NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday. "Europe could die" without fresh ideas, Emmanuel Macron said. The US would send more advisers to Kyiv, but in "non-combat roles", Washington said.
INTELLIGENCE. The speeches by Macron and Stoltenberg in Paris and Berlin follow several weeks of shifting rhetoric (before and after Congress’s decision on funding) over assistance to Ukraine. With Western “military advisers” now an open secret, the potential for a full deployment should not be discounted. A growing acceptance that this would not cross NATO’s Article 5 mutual defence clause should allied troops be killed is both comforting and concerning.
FOR BUSINESS. It is becoming clearer that arms-length aid and weapons won’t help Ukraine alone. At best, the latest tranche of allied support will allow Kyiv to negotiate a better peace deal. With Ukrainian manpower depleted and recruitment efforts stalled, Western troops are the obvious next step. Yet these are more likely to be European than American, and, of this, more likely to be French. It is also likely any deployment would be done outside of NATO.
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RUSSIA. CHINA. Eastern promise
Xi won’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
Vladimir Putin said Thursday he planned to visit China in May. Washington's ambassador to NATO said China had "picked a side" in Ukraine. China was providing moorings to a US-sanctioned Russian vessel, satellite imagery showed.
INTELLIGENCE. Imagery from Britain's Royal United Services Institute showed a Russian ship associated with North Korean weapons transfers docked in Zhejiang since February. The release, on the day of Antony Blinken's meeting with his counterpart in Beijing, makes it harder for the US to ignore China’s support to Russia, passive or active. Yet pressure for China to desist will be ignored. Despite the US’s economic heft, Russia holds other attractions for China.
FOR BUSINESS. Judging by its investment in manufacturing and technology, Beijing appears to be sanctions-proofing its economy. Rather than pursuing “over-capacity” it is seeking strategic autonomy. US threats over Russia may thus be only an inconvenience. And while Beijing would prefer to have good relations and free trade with both Washington and Moscow, only one of these is offering itself as supplicant. And for Xi Jinping, that’s an offer too good to refuse.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Two-state illusion
Hamas pretends to accept a Jewish state.
Hamas said Thursday it would disarm if Israel agreed to a two-state solution along pre-1967 lines. The group earlier said US calls for the release of hostages “had no value". Further preparations were made for an Israeli attack on Rafah.
INTELLIGENCE. A ground assault on Rafah, which would militarily defeat Hamas but at immense humanitarian cost, appears imminent. The about-face on a two-state solution is the group’s biggest concession to date but is likely more an attempt at stalling (and sympathy in the West) than a genuine offer. Further, Israel won’t likely accept it. Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party, let alone his far-right coalition partners, is against such a deal, and has been for years.
FOR BUSINESS. Two states would be best for Israel, politically and economically, but this is like saying peace would best for Earth. A viable pathway is further away than it’s been in decades and it’s unlikely a deal can be forced via Arab normalisation, or the efforts of a White House during an election. Israel’s proposal in March for a multinational security force in Gaza seems more realistic. And from there it’s possible more lofty plans could be explored.
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HAITI. Government-in-hiding
The Transitional Presidential Council forms in secret.
A council to appoint a new president and government was sworn in Thursday at an undisclosed location while gangs roamed Port-au-Prince. Ariel Henry resigned via social media and Michel Boisvert became interim prime minister.
INTELLIGENCE. The US and allies welcomed the appointment, but the Council’s writ won’t extend beyond the national palace unless a promised stabilisation force arrives. Kenya has said it would lead a police deployment, alongside Benin and several Caribbean states, but Nairobi is dealing with floods and the death of its defence chief, while the others have stayed mum. The US landed a plane on Tuesday with supplies but has ruled out sending its own police.
FOR BUSINESS. The landing of an Air Force C-130, the first flight to reach Port-au-Prince in months, was a sign of hope but also desperation, as ports, fuel terminals and roads remain blocked. Without foreign forces, the TPC will find it impossible to battle the gangs. And without a swift deployment, the chances of a third-party intervention grow. Moscow has reportedly explored security contracts in Haiti before. Beijing has eyed a diplomatic shift from Taipei.
BRITAIN. Tam o’shambles
Political turmoil extends to Holyrood.
Scotland's coalition government collapsed Thursday as first minister Humza Yousaf faced a no-confidence vote. Yousaf's predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon, said embezzlement charges against her husband were "incredibly difficult".
INTELLIGENCE. As the Tories in Westminster struggle to regain a sense of authority, the Scottish National Party’s travails must seem sweeter than a fried Mars bar. Yet Conservative plans to force a vote of no-confidence in Edinburgh may backfire. Not only would this deliver the SNP to a more left-wing leadership (and reinstate coalition with the Greens) but improve Labour’s chances of governing for the first time since 2007. Elections are due in 2026.
FOR BUSINESS. Labour holds just 22 seats in Holyrood to the SNP's 63, and the Tories' 31, but in polling it’s now on top. In Westminster, Labour holds 201 seats to the government's 346 (the SNP is third with 43), but in polls it has a 25-point lead, which could deliver up to 400 of 650 seats. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has finally passed contentious asylum legislation, but as an issue, it’s unlikely to be enough to secure re-election after 14 years of government.