Ukraine, Russia: Compromising material

Also: Syria, the US, Myanmar, and Thailand.

Beat the Whites with the Red Wedge, El Lissitzky, 1920, poster, Museum of Fine Arts, Boston.

The five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin suggests he's open to a bargain.

• SYRIA. Moscow and Washington look to court the new regime.

• UNITED STATES. Republicans are split on a contentious spending bill.

• MYANMAR. Meetings with the neighbourhood yield few results.

• THAILAND. The ruling party’s agenda hits familiar roadblocks.

🎄This is our last daily briefing for 2024. We will still be publishing each Saturday over the Christmas break, with our daily dispatches returning on 13 January.🎄

Get full access to all five daily briefings, weekly analyses, and private webinars—at 50% off this December. Upgrade today for the only daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Compromising material

Putin suggests he's open to a bargain.

Vladimir Putin said he was ready for "compromise" and a meeting with Donald Trump, during his annual public press conference Thursday. Volodymyr Zelensky said the US and EU must work together to "stop Putin and save Ukraine".

INTELLIGENCE. With Russian troops closing in on Pokrovsk, and Ukrainian forces retreating behind the Psel River in Kursk, Zelensky would be expected to be more conciliatory than Putin, whom the former described as a “fantasiser” in talks with EU leaders. Yet while Putin is many things, and is being buffeted by 9% inflation (which he admitted in this year’s 4.5-hour telethon), he’s a stone-cold realist. And if he wants to compromise, he’ll want something in return.

FOR BUSINESS. There’s a view that Trump’s eagerness to strike a deal evinces Russian kompromat on the president-elect. It’s more likely Trump wants a deal for its own sake, insofar as the US has, per Antony Blinken, spent $100 billion with little to show. What Putin gets is an open question. There’s increasing focus on what Europe will do to improve Kyiv’s terms and secure the peace. Yet with France and Germany in crisis, any commitments may not stick.

Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials. Interested in exploring how our scenario planning workshops, bespoke briefings, tailored risk assessments or ongoing advisory support can help your business?

SYRIA. Bearding the lion

Moscow and Washington look to court the new regime.

Washington said it had 2,000 troops in Syria, not 900 as previously reported. The US was in contact with Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Antony Blinken said. Chechnya's Ramzan Kadyrov had been tasked to mediate with HTS, Novaya Gazeta said.

INTELLIGENCE. Kadyrov, himself a former terrorist, has called for HTS to taken off Russia’s sanctions list and brought into