Ukraine, Russia: Crimea and punishment
Also: Moldova, France, Haiti, and Julian Assange.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Crimea and punishment
Moscow threatens the US with retaliation.
Moscow vowed retaliation Monday for a "barbaric" strike on Crimea it directly blamed on Washington. The Pentagon denied reports Russia had shot own a Global Hawk reconnaissance drone allegedly involved in supporting the attack.
INTELLIGENCE. Coming just before Sunday’s terrorist attack in Dagestan, the explosion of an ATACMS missile over Sevastopol has put Moscow on the back foot. It’s not the first time Russian civilians have been killed, nor the first time US-supplied weapons have been used against Russian targets, including in Crimea. But the death of two children on a beach has led to a greater than usual political response. The US has distanced itself from the incident.
FOR BUSINESS. Russia has threatened escalation and retaliation before, but a targeted response should not be ruled out. Russia is generally on the receiving end of economic sanctions, but it can squeeze the US in several ways. One is by suspending uranium sales. The US ostensibly banned Russian nuclear fuel last month, but waivers were made to keep reactors running. Another is by seizing the assets of US firms still in Russia, like PepsiCo and Philip Morris.
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UKRAINE. MOLDOVA. Wait of the union
A long road to EU membership begins.
Formal talks began Tuesday for Ukraine and Moldova to join the EU. Belgium's foreign minister, representing the rotating EU presidency, opened the Accession Conference. The EU said Monday it would downgrade ties with Georgia.
INTELLIGENCE. Georgia made its accession application alongside Ukraine and Moldova in early 2022. Its path has been stalled by the recent introduction of so-called “Russian laws” on foreign agents, opposed by much of civil society and Georgia’s liberal French-born president. It’s a warning on what could transpire along the path to membership. While Ukraine and Moldova are pro-EU today, Georgia was once much further ahead, particularly on economic reform.
FOR BUSINESS. Until the World Bank scrapped its ease of doing business index, Georgia ranked seventh, above the UK. By contrast, Moldova and Ukraine were 48 and 64, far below Russia. While this is no proxy for EU suitability, both states have far to go. Other would-be members, including Bosnia, Albania, and North Macedonia have been in talks since 2016, 2009, and 2004 respectively. Talks could also hit a snag when Hungary takes the rotating presidency.
FRANCE. Uncivil warnings
As Macron goes for hyperbole, trust for the far-right rises.
Emmanuel Macron said Monday France risked "civil war" should the hard-left or hard-right be elected. Polls saw support for the right at 36%, versus 27% for the left and 20% for Macron's centrists. Economic trust was highest for the right.
INTELLIGENCE. As Macron’s claims further diverge from French opinion, his gambit looks increasingly bound to fail. Fears of an economic crisis under the right-wing National Rally have abated (though fears remain for the left). Its prime ministerial candidate has begun tacking to the centre on the EU, fiscal rules, business, and Ukraine. His major difference, which most appeals to voters, is on migration and energy. And on these he’s not out of the EU mainstream.
FOR BUSINESS. Macron’s brand of centrism looks doomed but that doesn’t mean economic norms will be destroyed. As with Italy under Giorgia Meloni, a French government led by National Rally won’t likely be as bad as once feared. And unlike in Italy, French governments are restrained by a powerful presidency (with Macron presumably staying on). Further, even against a populist wave, EU institutions are designed to generate compromise and consensus.
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HAITI. Bolt from the blues
Police reinforcements finally arrive.
Around 400 Kenyan officers were due to land in Port-au-Prince Tuesday, with a similar number expected later. A Miami court sentenced an ex-gang leader to 35 years in prison. His successor remains at large, presumably in Haiti’s capital.
INTELLIGENCE. The Kenyans’ long-awaited arrival is rare good news for Haiti, but the gangs remain in control for now. Around 1,000 Kenyan police and an unknown number from a dozen other countries are expected but the UN estimates at least 5,000 will be needed. And the sentenced Germine "Yonyon" Joly, of the gang 400 Mawozo, is no longer the most feared criminal. The rival G9 gang of Jimmy "Barbecue" Chérizier controls most of Port-au-Prince.
FOR BUSINESS. Haiti will remain a failed state for some time, even under optimistic scenarios. The power vacuum will continue to pose migration and security risks for its neighbours, including the US, as well as strengthen China’s hopes to tip yet another Taiwan ally to its side. Haiti is one of 12 countries that still recognise Taipei and is second to Guatemala in population (12 million to 18 million). Beijing has previously hinted at interest-free development loans.
UNITED STATES. Not worth the whistleblower
The world has moved on since Assange’s 2010 arrest.
US prosecutors agreed to a plea bargain with Julian Assange Tuesday, allowing the WikiLeaks founder to return to Australia after a hearing in the territory of the Northern Mariana Islands. He left London's Belmarsh prison on Monday.
INTELLIGENCE. Assange’s release was sought by US ally Australia, and having already been in various states of confinement for the past 14 years there was little point prosecuting him further. With supporters on both sides of US politics, his incarceration would have been a distraction for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Further, in an age of AI, crypto, polarisation, and great power competition, the hacktivism Assange once engaged in looks almost quaint.
FOR BUSINESS. Allowing Assange to enjoy his freedom in the West avoids creating another Edward Snowden, an ex-NSA whistleblower now living in Moscow at Vladimir Putin’s pleasure. And while WikiLeaks continues, its efforts pack less punch in a more cynical, “post-truth” age. Firms and governments, moreover, are better at cybersecurity and PR. Today’s leaks and data breaches tend to be more about money than public interest journalism or information warfare.