Ukraine, Russia: Crossing the line
Also: Saudi Arabia, the US, Central Asia, the DRC, and Haiti.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Crossing the line
As defences are breached, France hints again at sending troops.
Russian soldiers pushed past fortifications in Donetsk Thursday as the city of Chasiv Yar appeared close to collapse. France’s Emmanuel Macron told The Economist he would not rule out sending ground troops if Ukraine requested it.
INTELLIGENCE. The first condition for French aid – a break in Ukrainian lines – appears fulfilled. The arrival of French forces may thus only require a phone call from Kyiv. Yet it's unclear what this would achieve. Russia will unlikely pause its campaign due to the presence of NATO troops, particularly as France’s allies make clear this is a unilateral deployment. French air support, on the other hand, may break the advance, albeit at significant risk to escalation.
FOR BUSINESS. Macron may be bluffing but his threats could become a self-fulfilling prophecy and political wildcard a month from EU elections. And while escalation may be necessary to secure Russian agreement to peace talks – something Kyiv is now entertaining even if Moscow still demurs – escalation can always get out of control. Markets seem not to have noticed, but these events might prove more consequential than anything in the Middle East.
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SAUDI ARABIA. UNITED STATES. Benefits without friends
Riyadh wants a security pact without Israel.
The US and Saudi Arabia were close to agreeing security guarantees and a civil nuclear arrangement, media said Thursday, albeit without the grand bargain of Saudi-Israel normalisation. Turkey said it would halt all trade with Israel.
INTELLIGENCE. An agreement without Israel would be manna for Riyadh, which is conscious of how things would be perceived in the Muslim world, though it will face opposition in Washington, where recognition of Israel has been key to Republican support. Yet a Saudi-Israel deal would not just attract protest on the Arab street, it would risk ceding Sunni leadership to Turkey, which has recently become almost as outspoken as Iran on the plight of the Palestinians.
FOR BUSINESS. Turkey is a bigger potential threat to Saudi Arabia than Iran. Richer, industrialised, and linked to the West, plus with a constellation of interests across Africa and Central Asia, it is the Middle East’s natural hegemon – and was for most of the past 500 years. And while a security pact with Washington would help preserve Riyadh’s status (Ankara already enjoys such privileges through NATO), it’s uncertain whether Jerusalem is worth the risk.
CENTRAL ASIA. Central oils
Energy politics at the heart of Eurasia.
The Taliban said Thursday it had agreed with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to build a logistics hub connecting Russia and South Asia. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum Wednesday to link their power grids.
INTELLIGENCE. Landlocked Central Asia has been at the core and periphery of global commerce for centuries. By building energy interconnections on its own terms (versus those of China’s Belt and Road, or Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union) it can turn its geographic curse into a blessing. That at least is the hope. Poverty, Islamic extremism, and mountainous terrain make these plans difficult, but – since Genghis Khan – there has never been a better time.
FOR BUSINESS. Maritime security threats, Western sanctions, the war in Ukraine and shifts in the Caucasus have made Central Asian connectivity viable – almost. With Chinese or Turkish funds, the projects can be built but US pressure can still make the final mile difficult. Per Pakistan’s experience with a semi-finished pipeline from Iran, which it may need to shelve despite the arbitration risks, projects that connect to, or buy from, rogue states are never easy.
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DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO. Bad blood
Rising risks in conflict minerals, and viruses.
Rebels took control of Rubaya Tuesday, home to 50% of Congo's coltan production. Kinshasa last week asked Apple for information on where it sourced its tantalum. The WHO said confirmed mpox cases in Congo rose 60% in March.
INTELLIGENCE. Mpox levels, likely underreported, have been concentrated in the areas under conflict in Congo’s east. In the mining town of Kamituga, a new form of mpox, which has a 10% fatality rate, has been identified in 240 patients. So far at least, it pales against Congo’s other plague: conflict minerals. Lawyers for the DRC said Apple could face legal action for purchasing "blood minerals" like coltan smuggled to Rwanda by Tutsi rebels like the M23.
FOR BUSINESS. The M23 have been under UN sanctions since 2012 but enjoy tacit support from Rwanda, dating to the country's 1994 genocide. With control of Rubaya, Rwanda in turn now hypothetically controls much of the world’s tantalum, used in circuits and capacitors for mobile phones and other electronics. With its tech-savvy government, Rwanda has more influence than the DRC in Western boardrooms but may start to receive tricky questions of its own.
HAITI. How Bélizaire
A prime minister is appointed then withdrawn.
Haiti’s Transitional Presidential Council Wednesday reversed a decision made a day earlier to appoint Fritz Bélizaire, a largely unknown ex-sports minister, as premier. Hundreds fled Thursday after a major gang attack in Port-au-Prince.
INTELLIGENCE. As the Transitional Presidential Council bickers over who will lead Haiti out of its crisis, the gangs are maximising their control of the capital before the arrival of a UN-backed police mission. They may have plenty of time. US-built housing for the Kenya and Benin-led force is said to not be ready, while floods in Kenya and protests in Benin are keeping those authorities busy. There are also fears the gangs have received arms stolen from Colombia.
FOR BUSINESS. The slower the police deploy, the greater the risks of irregular migration to the US. Fears of refugee waves to Florida have largely been unfounded, but as people grow more desperate, and smugglers more organised (perhaps as a new racket for the gangs), the situation could change. Likewise, the risks of maritime piracy (a former Caribbean speciality) should not be ignored. Haiti abuts a key shipping lane between Panama and the US east coast.