Ukraine, Russia: Direction of travel

Also: the US, the Arctic, Boeing and NASA, Venezuela, and Guyana.

Road in winter, Ilya Repin, late 19th century, oil on board, private collection.

In today’s dispatch:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. As Putin gains ground, Zelensky sends his envoy to Beijing.

• UNITED STATES. The conspiracy theories no longer seem so ridiculous.

• THE ARCTIC. US-Russia competition heats up.

• SPACE. A troubled NASA mission exceeds its 45-day battery window.

• VENEZUELA. GUYANA. Concerns persist of an election-related border crisis.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Direction of travel

As Putin gains ground, Zelensky sends his envoy to Beijing.

Russian troops had staged 39 assaults on the logistics hub of Pokrovsk in the past 24 hours, Kyiv said Monday, indicating a potential strategic breach. Ukraine sent its foreign minister to China for the first time since the war began.

INTELLIGENCE. Momentum is increasingly in Russia’s favour and serious attempts to seek a political settlement are now in play. The EU has reacted furiously to Viktor Orban’s freelance diplomacy, particularly his trip to Moscow, and on Monday withdrew Hungary’s hosting of the blocs next foreign minsters’ meeting, but Orban may end up having the last laugh if Ukraine follows suit. Beijing-linked outlets have characterised the visit as a preamble to peace talks.

FOR BUSINESS. Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to Donald Trump Friday and has since hinted at a willingness to negotiate, which is an abrupt shift from Kyiv’s earlier position (and Brussels’ current position). It won’t be easy, least of all because Zelensky’s supporters would almost certainly dump him as president, but it’s hard to see an alternative. Bondholders have already tacitly admitted Ukraine’s loss, accepting a 37.5% haircut on $20 billion in debt Monday.

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UNITED STATES. What they saw in Butler

Conspiracy theories go mainstream.

Media questioned if Joe Biden’s phone-in to Kamala Harris's rally Monday was fake. Social media commentators said the president was dead. JD Vance said the Democrats had led a "coup". The Secret Service chief faced calls to resign.

INTELLIGENCE. Occam's razor posits the simplest explanation is usually right. Joe Biden is isolating with Covid. Harris's nomination, which has broken fundraising records, will