Ukraine, Russia: Doctrines without borders

Also: India, Pakistan, China, the Philippines, Israel, and Lebanon.

Take It Easy, Boys, It’s Loaded! Willard Combes, 1945, crayon ink and graphite on paper, Library of Congress, Washington DC.

In today’s dispatch:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv sends missiles as Moscow lowers its nuclear threshold.

• INDIA. RUSSIA. Putin's invitation to Delhi is about a delicate balance.

• PAKISTAN. CHINA. Beijing sends troops for rare counter-terrorism drills.

• SOUTH CHINA SEA. As Manila tacks closer to Washington, the region gets wary.

• ISRAEL. LEBANON. US attempts at mediation continue to flounder.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Doctrines without borders

Kyiv sends missiles as Moscow lowers its nuclear threshold.

Vladimir Putin approved changes to Russia’s military rules Tuesday, lowering the threshold for nuclear retaliation to include conventional attacks by countries allied to nuclear-armed powers. Ukraine launched six missiles into Bryansk.

INTELLIGENCE. The rules of war would not normally matter for Russia, but it takes a highly legalistic approach to its nuclear doctrine and the change is a major shift. That said, Ukraine's strikes, five of which Russia nonchalantly said were shot down (a sixth landed in a field) unlikely breach the "critical threat" threshold encapsulated in the document Putin signed. Still, the missiles, which require US personnel, implicate Washington in a direct strike on Russian soil.

FOR BUSINESS. Kyiv claims the ATACMS missiles, costing around $2 million each, hit an arms depot. Either way, what matters is Moscow’s indifferent response, which signals it doesn’t want serious escalation (though it could use the attack as an excuse for other actions in the weeks ahead). Bryansk is along the border and the ATACMS only have a 300km range. Kyiv unlikely has more than handful left out of the several dozen it has received since late 2023.

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INDIA. RUSSIA. Holding one’s pose

Putin’s invitation to Delhi is about a delicate balance.

Vladimir Putin would soon visit India, the Kremlin said Tuesday. India last week tested its first long-range hypersonic missile. Local analysts said it appeared to be based on Russia's Zircon platform, which has been used in Ukraine.

INTELLIGENCE. Russia and India have jointly operated a missile development program since 1995. The test appears to be of the secretive