Ukraine, Russia: Double trouble

Also: Spain, Libya, Nigeria, and mpox.

The Battle of Borodino, Peter von Hess, 1843, oil on canvas, The Hermitage, St Petersburg.

In today’s dispatch:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A raid into Kursk embarrasses Moscow but endangers Kyiv.

• SPAIN. A separatist leader’s return could upend a fragile government.

• LIBYA. ‘Political blackmail’ and a production outage.

• NIGERIA. Russian flags appear at anti-government protests.

• GLOBAL HEALTH. The World Health Organization belatedly calls a meeting.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Double trouble

A raid into Kursk embarrasses Moscow but endangers Kyiv.

Ukrainian troops had reached about 10 kilometres into Russia's Kursk region Wednesday in its biggest cross-border raid to date. A state of emergency was declared and around 40 Russian soldiers were reported to have surrendered.

INTELLIGENCE. The raid is a political setback for Putin, who looked discomforted in a briefing with military brass, but could be a strategic blunder for Ukraine. By launching border raids into Kharkiv several weeks ago, Russia aimed to stretch Ukrainian forces from the main battlelines in Donbas. Ukraine was forced to respond and Russia has made advances since. Now it appears Ukraine is stretching its depleted troops, and patriot missile systems, unilaterally.

FOR BUSINESS. The raid boosts morale for Kyiv as it seeks to replenish reserves and prepare for potential negotiations in the months ahead. The capture of Russian troops also increases Ukraine’s leverage for future prisoner swaps. But while Moscow can absorb the losses, Kyiv is operating on thin margins. Alleged tactical aims, such as the destruction of a key gas node to Europe, or the capture of a nuclear power station, seem unlikely to succeed.

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SPAIN. Catalan and mouse

A separatist leader’s return could upend a fragile government.

Separatist leader Carles Puigdemont vowed to attend Catalonia's parliament Thursday after seven years of self-exile following an illegal referendum. Catalan independence party Junts asked its voters to welcome him back to Barcelona.

INTELLIGENCE. Spain’s left-wing minority government is in a bind. If it arrests Puigdemont it will upset Junts and other parties for which it needs supply. If it doesn't