Ukraine, Russia: Early warning
Also: the Baltic, Moldova, China, Japan, South Korea, and the Vatican.
In addition to our daily risk monitoring brief, the team behind Geopolitical Dispatch also provides advice, risk audits, scenario planning, executive masterclasses and board briefings among other services. Click here to get in touch.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Early warning
Kyiv attacks Moscow’s nuclear tripwire.
Ukraine had struck a Russian anti-missile defence radar, Bloomberg said Sunday, citing intelligence sources. Vladimir Putin was ready to negotiate a ceasefire that recognised current battlefield lines, Russian officials told Reuters.
INTELLIGENCE. It is hard to see why Moscow would want a truce – its forces have momentum as Kyiv struggles to replace soldiers and munitions – but the alleged strike on a Voronezh early-warning radar in Krasnodar could be a clue. Ukrainian drones apparently destroyed two buildings associated with the system, though not the radar itself, which Russia uses to detect ballistic missiles. A hit on the radar could risk enlivening Russia’s nuclear doctrine.
FOR BUSINESS. NATO partners are debating whether to allow Ukraine the use of Western missiles to hit targets inside Russia. A recent attack on an air base in Crimea showed that some of these systems, notably the US ATACMS, can still effectively breach Russian defences. Yet the risk of a hit on another site like the Armavir Radar Station would almost certainly be unacceptable. Ukraine may be in an existential crisis, but few others will want to risk nuclear war.
Geopolitical Strategy is the advisory firm behind Geopolitical Dispatch. Our partners are former diplomats with vast experience in international affairs, risk management, and public affairs. We help businesses and investors to understand geopolitical developments and their impacts with clarity and concision.
THE BALTIC. Northern exposure
Pressure builds elsewhere along Russia’s borders.
Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia announced plans Sunday to build a "drone wall" along their border with Russia. Russian media last week said the Kremlin intended to update its coordinates used to delineate territorial waters in the Baltic.
INTELLIGENCE. Russia has not confirmed this intent – which Baltic officials describe as “hybrid war” disinformation – but it is pushing back on narratives the Baltic has become a “NATO lake” following the accession of Sweden and Finland to the bloc. This includes by moving river buoys on the border with Estonia and by jamming GPS receivers. Its allies are happy to help. Belarus has also threatened the Baltics. China has made discernible use of Kaliningrad.
FOR BUSINESS. After visiting China, Vladimir Putin made his second post-inauguration visit to Belarus, where the Baltics were on the agenda. Belarus has frequently claimed its border region is under threat from Poland and Lithuania, which re-elected its president Sunday. But the more interesting discussion may have been on the future of Ukraine. A plane belonging to its former president, Viktor Yanukovych, landed in Belarus the day Putin was visiting.
MOLDOVA. Shor division
Pro-EU parties are dangerously divided.
Twelve parties formed a pro-EU bloc Sunday for a referendum in October, but several warned they would still campaign against the president’s concurrent re-election. Chisinau asked Moscow to extradite opposition leader Ilan Shor.
INTELLIGENCE. President Maia Sandu has moved closer to the EU and NATO since Russia’s invasion of neighbouring Ukraine. Many support her pivot, which includes a security and defence partnership signed on Tuesday. Yet not all are happy she is seemingly equating her re-election with a separate vote on enshrining EU membership plans into the constitution. This is to the benefit of those who still lean toward Russia, notably exiled billionaire and fraudster Shor.
FOR BUSINESS. Moldovans will likely vote for the EU in October, irrespective of Russian opposition, but this won’t make EU membership a given, amid stalled accession talks in the Balkans and mixed messages on Georgia and Ukraine. The US hopes to give Moldova hope – Antony Blinken visits this week – but it’s not up to Washington. Either way, Russia is set to retain its influence in the breakaway sliver of Transnistria, which borders Ukraine’s Odesa oblast.
Emailed each weekday at 5am Eastern (9am GMT), Geopolitical Dispatch goes beyond the news to outline the implications. With the brevity of a media digest, but the depth of an intelligence assessment, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you the strategic framing and situational awareness to stay ahead in a changing world.
CHINA. JAPAN. SOUTH KOREA. Tri harder
Beijing works to reset its nearest relationships.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited Seoul Monday for his first trilateral talks with South Korea and Japan in four years. Li said the talks were a "restart and new beginning". North Korea told Japan it would launch a satellite in the coming days.
INTELLIGENCE. Following US tariffs on green and high-tech goods, China is keen to show it can still do business with others. A free trade area with South Korea and Japan – beyond that already reached through the ASEAN-centric Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership – is high on the agenda. Yet trust between Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo is low. And though the latter would like to boost growth through trade with China, they are wedded to Washington.
FOR BUSINESS. The leaders of South Korea and Japan have already met Joe Biden in trilateral format, at Camp David in August. In the coming days, defence ministers from the three allies will meet in Singapore (where Lloyd Austin will separately meet his Chinese counterpart). But Beijing could nonetheless find an economic wedge. US protectionism is not just against China. Both Biden and Donald Trump have threatened to block Nippon Steel’s purchase of US Steel.
CHINA. THE VATICAN. Come to Jinping moment
Christianity has a conversion.
The World Council of Churches' general secretary met Chinese officials Friday, days after the Vatican said it would like to establish a permanent office in Beijing. The Chinese-appointed Bishop of Shanghai defended China in a visit to Rome.
INTELLIGENCE. Ecclesiastically, the Holy See does not recognise the Chinese church. Diplomatically, it recognises Taiwan. This could soon change thanks to the efforts of Pope Francis. The WCC, of which the Catholic Church is not a full member, has fewer issues with Beijing, but is likewise getting closer. Officially, there are around 44 million Christians in China, of which the majority are protestant. Missionary groups claim the number is at least double that.
FOR BUSINESS. Most of the world’s Christians are outside the West. Rome is headed by an Argentine and the WCC by a South African. On issues from Ukraine to gender, church authorities are increasingly out of step with Western governments. While avowedly atheist, Xi Jinping will exploit any spiritual schisms. And getting the Vatican to recognise Beijing will likely influence Taipei’s remaining diplomatic allies, mostly small and culturally conservative.