Ukraine, Russia: Fuel to the ceasefire

Also: the Netherlands, Israel, Iran, Pakistan, and Cuba.

Sebastopol (Storming of the Great Redan), unknown, 1855, coloured lithograph, National Army Museum, London.

In today’s dispatch, we look at the escalating conflict in Ukraine as a timer is set to a deal under Donald Trump. We also look at the aftermath of rioting in the Netherlands, and a conundrum for Benjamin Netanyahu. Elsewhere, separatist militants In Pakistan’s Balochistan and Iran’s Baluchestan pose a dilemma not just for their capitals but also for Beijing. And finally, in witness to the cliché that bad things come in threes, two hurricanes in Cuba are followed by an earthquake.

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Michael Feller, Chief Strategist

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Fuel to the ceasefire

Kyiv and Moscow scramble for facts on the ground.

Donald Trump spoke to Vladimir Putin for the first time in two years, warning him not to escalate, the Washington Post said Sunday. Strikes increased on Kyiv as Moscow experienced its biggest drone attack since the start of the war.

INTELLIGENCE. Expectations of an armistice must be serious, as Ukraine and Russia are demonstrably seeking to maximise their negotiating leverage before Trump takes office. In a grinding war, where conserving arms and manpower has been as important as gaining territory, riskier gambits may now be played, albeit, in the case of Russia, below a level which might invite direct Western retaliation, whether under the current US administration or the next.

FOR BUSINESS. Joe Biden has signalled he will urge Trump not to forsake Ukraine, as the US rushes remaining aid and lifts restrictions on military “contractors”. But Trump is signalling impatience with the war, and any advice it should continue. He has ruled out appointments for Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo, prominent hawks. Russian shares, like many risk markets, have risen since 5 November. A defence pact with North Korea has been signed into law.

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THE NETHERLANDS. Crystal clear

A night of rioting galvanises the anti-migrant right.

Anti-Muslim firebrand Geert Wilders, head of the largest party in government, met Israel’s foreign minister after football fans were attacked in riots on the anniversary of Kristallnacht. Wilders said the Netherland was the “Gaza” of Europe.

INTELLIGENCE. The antisemitic riots were ugly but a gift to Wilders, whose ultranationalist cause was being forgotten amid the realities of