Ukraine, Russia: In broad daylight
Also: Belarus, China, the Caucasus, India, Pakistan, France, and New Caledonia.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily global intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. In broad daylight
A Kyiv children’s hospital forms a new frontline.
At least 37 were killed, including two at a children's hospital, as Kyiv and other cities came under attack from Russian missiles Monday. Volodymyr Zelensky slammed Narendra Modi, who was taking tea with Vladimir Putin at his dacha.
INTELLIGENCE. The Kremlin blamed Ukrainian interceptors for the hospital’s destruction. The episode has shades of last month's attack on a tourist beach in Sevastopol, which killed four, including two children. Moscow blamed US-supplied ATACMS missiles. Kyiv blamed Russian defences. Civilian casualties, beyond being horrific, can derail peace efforts. A day ahead of NATO’s Washington summit, the attack has been cited as a reason to ignore calls for talks.
FOR BUSINESS. Besides Modi, Kyiv also singled out Xi Jinping and Viktor Orban for spreading a “false feeling” of Putin’s “right to kill because he speaks of peace.” The reaction may be justified but it whittles down the options for a neutral broker for when a settlement must eventually be pursued. China has taken umbrage at Ukraine’s criticism before. India, which has tried to maintain relations with all sides, will also baulk at accusations it is somehow at fault.
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BELARUS. CHINA. Minsk moment
Joint exercises begin near the Polish border.
The militaries of Belarus and China began eleven days of manoeuvres close to the Polish border Monday, in a move Minsk said responded to "alarming" events elsewhere. Chinese defence officials visited for bilateral talks on Saturday.
INTELLIGENCE. Ahead of the NATO summit, and as Zelensky visited Warsaw for the signing of a security pact, the drills are an obvious signal to the West. They are also a signal to Russia.