Ukraine, Russia: In the firing line
Also: Libya, China, Africa, Uganda, and Venezuela.
In today’s dispatch:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Missiles, and a political shakeup, strike the heart of Kyiv.
LIBYA. Haftar’s intrigues belie hope of a factional accord.
CHINA. AFRICA. Tighter budgets crimp a new round of debt diplomacy.
UGANDA. The opposition leader is shot in the leg.
VENEZUELA. Maduro wraps up the chance of an opposition compromise.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. In the firing line
Missiles, and a political shakeup, strike the heart of Kyiv.
Missiles and drones struck Kyiv Wednesday, after dozens were killed at a military college in Poltava. Six ministers resigned and a presidential aide was sacked following the earlier departures of Ukraine's energy and air force chiefs.
INTELLIGENCE. As Russian troops approach the city of Pokrovsk, and Volodymyr Zelensky digs in over Kursk despite growing criticism, many of his closest circle are departing. It is impossible to truly know if the resignations are at, or against, Kyiv’s wishes, but they form more evidence of desperation. Perhaps sensing the moment, Vladimir Putin has this week shifted his public rhetoric on not wanting to engage in peace talks, saying “we have never given up on this”.
FOR BUSINESS. Unless the West sends long-range missile (and allows their use inside Russia) Zelensky will need to consider whether to sue for peace or wait. The US election will feature in this calculus, but it could be secondary to the risk of losing more lives, or strategic hubs like Pokrovsk. The West, for its part, will need to consider whether Russia’s nuclear sabre-rattling is genuine. The recent severance of a classified telephone line could make this harder.
LIBYA. False promise
Haftar’s intrigues belie hope of a factional accord.
Oil prices extended falls Wednesday on speculation a dispute on Libyan crude exports would soon be lifted. Libya's rival government factions Tuesday agreed to jointly appoint a new central bank governor following UN-brokered talks.
INTELLIGENCE. Exports will likely resume, but the dust-up over the central bank was a symptom, not the cause, of Libya’s fraying political consensus. As