Ukraine, Russia: Peace of paper
Also: Australia, China, the Philippines, India, the US, and Haiti.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Peace of paper
Unless the battle turns, Kyiv’s demands will be ignored.
Almost 80 countries joined Kyiv in a statement Sunday calling for territorial integrity as the basis for any deal with Moscow. Key developing countries that sent delegations to Switzerland's peace conference on Ukraine did not sign up.
INTELLIGENCE. The two-day peace summit, which was boycotted by China and other major players, issued a series of well-rehearsed demands but little in the way of a path forward. Russia would have likely ignored the outcome regardless but will feel relieved that friends like Mexico, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and South Africa refused to sign the communique. A leader of the biggest party in Switzerland’s legislature called the conference an “embarrassment”.
FOR BUSINESS. The event wasn’t helped by Joe Biden’s decision to attend a dinner in Hollywood instead, nor Donald Trump’s threat on Saturday to "settle" the war as president-elect. Ukraine’s best chance at a positive outcome will be through further military aid, though the risks of escalation and NATO involvement are keeping governments wary of moving too fast; particularly as France faces an uncertain election and jockeying continues for a new head of NATO.
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AUSTRALIA. CHINA. Stable mates
Canberra plays for time amid uncertainty.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Premier Li Qiang held "candid" talks on Monday, a day after Li visited a zoo, promising two new pandas and saying ties were "back on track". It's China's first senior visit to Australia in seven years.
INTELLIGENCE. With better optics and fewer trade restrictions than under the previous administration, Australia’s centre-left government has scored a diplomatic win without changing its strategic priorities. Local analysts have nonetheless criticised Albanese’s stance, claiming the politics of “stabilisation” have no end goal. Yet that’s the point. Without knowing the exact direction of China (or the US) in the coming years, a stable status quo is the only option.
FOR BUSINESS. As a middle power with a trade dependence on China, Australia has few options other than to seek a modus vivendi. Troubles in the relationship remain, including the detention of an Australian writer and differences on the South China Sea, but Canberra won’t want to rock the boat until it’s forced to. That may happen next year, should Donald Trump be elected, and demand renewed allied fealty to a more adversarial US-China relationship.
PHILIPPINES. CHINA. Things that go bump
Manila, Beijing, and Washington continue to test the boundaries.
A Philippine ship had deliberately bumped a Chinese vessel in South China Sea, Beijing said Monday. Manila filed a UN claim Saturday to an extended continental shelf. Beijing issued new rules allowing it to detain foreigners in its waters.
INTELLIGENCE. Both sides are seeing how far they can go to establish new norms across their overlapping maritime claims, though the risk of unintended escalation is never distant. This is doubly risky for Manila, which lacks a credible naval deterrence of its own and must rely on uncertain US support. For Beijing, any sign of weakness risks its ongoing dispute with other claimants to the South China Sea, particularly Hanoi, which does have a credible naval deterrence.
FOR BUSINESS. The US may end up exacerbating tensions between the Philippines and China, whether intentionally or not. Reuters reported Friday the US had conducted a secret disinformation campaign against the efficacy of Chinese COVID vaccines in the Philippines, which the Pentagon has not denied. The Financial Times reported Saturday comments Xi Jinping allegedly made to Ursula von der Leyen that the US wanted to goad it into a war.
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INDIA. UNITED STATES. Hide and Sikh
Religious persecution abroad begins to backfire.
An Indian citizen suspected of plotting to kill a Sikh separatist on US soil had been extradited from the Czech Republic, US officials said Sunday. Ottawa said it had shared information with India about a similar case, which Delhi denies.
INTELLIGENCE. Widespread claims of extrajudicial harassment of Indian-origin minorities are getting harder to ignore. And with Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government starting its third term in a weaker position, India’s Western friends are starting to lean on it more forcefully. This may risk a tighter embrace by Delhi of Moscow, but if India was going to play fence-sitter during the good times there may be little extra risk of it doing so during the bad.
FOR BUSINESS. Commercial ties between India and the West are unlikely to be harmed by a stronger response to allegations of Delhi’s human rights abuses or foreign interference. Ottawa was previously targeted by Delhi for its relative outspokenness on such matters (Canada has a large Sikh minority) but in good company it will be harder to single it out. Australia’s national broadcaster aired intelligence claims Monday of India’s threat to national security.
HAITI. Shuffling the deck chairs
Without foreign intervention, the gangs will stay in charge.
Port-au-Prince confirmed Saturday it had replaced its police chief amid claims he had not done enough to protect his officers from Haiti's gangs. Haiti swore in a new cabinet last week, replacing entirely the previous administration.
INTELLIGENCE. There may have been things Haiti’s ex-police chief could have done better, but the government has lost control of 80% of the capital and there’s little it can do without long-awaited reinforcements. A Kenyan-led police mission was meant to deploy last month, but so far, only advancers have arrived. US Air Force planes, however, have been seen at Haiti’s main airport. Washington claims it is only providing logistical and humanitarian support.
FOR BUSINESS. As in previous foreign interventions, which have invariably ended badly, the US may end up leading the charge. This would not be Washington’s preference but an unpopular overseas mission on the eve of an election could be better than a refugee crisis and security vacuum on the eve of election. Republicans in Congress have already criticised the White House’s use of the presidential drawdown authority for sending $60 million in arms.
Just to add that the so-called "leader of the largest party in Switzerland" is a criminally convicted leader of the party's youth wing...