Ukraine, Russia: Plant of attack
Also: Taiwan, China, the Red Sea, mpox, and Argentina.
In today’s dispatch:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. The IAEA warns of another Chernobyl at Kursk.
TAIWAN. CHINA. Lai makes a trip to the frontline.
THE RED SEA. Deterrence goes out in a blazing oil tanker.
MPOX. A clade 1b case is confirmed in Thailand.
ARGENTINA. The Senate makes a unified move against Milei.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Plant of attack
The IAEA warns of another Chernobyl at Kursk.
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s chief Rafael Grossi would visit the Kursk nuclear plant Monday, after Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine Thursday of attacking it with drones. Gross said he was concerned of "Chernobyl"-like risks.
INTELLIGENCE. Kursk's primary reactor is virtually identical to Chernobyl’s, and has stood in for it in films about the 1986 disaster. And unlike Zaporizhzhia – another plant allegedly targeted by Ukrainian drones, but which is at least in cold shutdown – Kursk still generates 2,000MW of power. Putin is hardly a credible voice when it comes to claiming attacks, but the IAEA is taking few chances. Kyiv unlikely wants a nuclear crisis, but in wars, accidents happen.
FOR BUSINESS. Fighting in the Kursk region remains far from the plant, but well within drone and missile range. And many of the drones and missiles being used have a Western origin (alongside, allegedly, some of the mercenaries in theatre). A nuclear accident is not the only escalatory risk while fighting remains on Russian soil. Volodymyr Zelensky is correct that many of Russia’s red lines have turned out to be false, but testing new ones is seldom without peril.
TAIWAN. CHINA. Next of Kinmen
Lai makes a trip to the frontline.
TPresident Lai Ching-te made his first visit to the Kinmen islands Friday, commemorating the 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis. A US destroyer made a "routine" transit of the Taiwan Strait Thursday. Beijing described the move as "public hype".
INTELLIGENCE. 23 August is always laden with symbolism, marking the last real attempt to invade Taiwan (and the first real risk of nuclear war). Kinmen, just