Ukraine, Russia: Playing the Trump card
Also: the Caucasus, Iran, South Korea, Japan, the US, and Bangladesh.
In today’s dispatch, Joe Biden authorises Ukraine's use of long-range missiles into Russia, but is this once fiercely resisted move all that it seems? Meanwhile, Moscow is facing a different type of pressure in the Caucasus, and Tehran's factions seek to line up the next Supreme Leader. Elsewhere, Japan, South Korea and the US institutionalise their cooperation through a new secretariat, and Bangladesh marks 100 days since the ousting of a pro-Indian prime minister.
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Michael Feller, Chief Strategist
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Playing the Trump card
Biden and Scholz make their final moves before calling it quits.
The White House would let Ukraine use US missiles to strike deep into Russia, officials said Sunday. Russian lawmakers and Donald Trump's son said the move risked "World War II". Olaf Scholz defended making a call to Vladimir Putin.
INTELLIGENCE. Joe Biden resisted calls in September to allow long-range strikes, tacitly agreeing it could lead to a direct NATO conflict. Scholz’s call to Putin follows reports of talks between Russia’s leader and Trump (as well as several with Elon Musk). Heading to the exit, Biden and Scholz are seeking to define the war’s outcome before Trump takes the credit (or the risk). Putin is doing the same, with a 120-missile strike on Sunday, the war’s biggest so far.
FOR BUSINESS. The long-range authorisation may be a damp squib. Germany is keeping its Taurus missiles out of play. Britain, according to The Times on Sunday, is out of Storm Shadows. US ATACMS, meanwhile, are also running low. It’s been months since one was last used by Kyiv. Further, the authorisation is reportedly be confined to Kursk (where Ukraine already operates). As with the F-16s, the best window to use these weapons may have already passed.
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THE CAUCASUS. Beyond the Black Sea
Russian influence is tested again in Georgia and Armenia.
Several senior Armenian officials resigned Sunday, including the head of the judiciary. The president of the Russian-backed statelet of Abkhazia, in northwest Georgia, said he was ready to resign after protesters stormed the parliament.
INTELLIGENCE. As the world meets in Azerbaijan for COP29, the real action may be occurring in next-door Georgia and Armenia. Beyond