Ukraine, Russia: Power play
Also: Vietnam, Thailand, Peru, and climate change.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Power play
Energy is on the frontline.
The US will "reprioritise" missile defence deliveries to Kyiv, Washington said Thursday, amid further attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. More oil facilities caught fire in Russia's southwest. The EU banned re-exports of Russian LNG.
INTELLIGENCE. While Putin visits friends in Asia, his troops are slowly advancing in the Donbas. This remains the war's key front, but Ukraine's energy security is increasingly in play. Attempts to weaken Russia's own energy sector, whether through economic sanctions or strikes on oil and gas facilities, will have less effect but will nonetheless add pressure for the Kremlin to settle new export arrangements with Beijing, which continues to drive a hard bargain.
FOR BUSINESS. With plenty of alternatives, Beijing is in well placed to dictate terms on the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. Putin's trip to North Korea and Vietnam shows he is not solely reliant on China, but neither of these markets can make up for it. The only real alternative is India, but sending energy there is harder. Currently, exports go through the Red Sea, with the Arctic only open in summer. Finalising a route via the Caspian and Iran is now critical for both.
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VIETNAM. RUSSIA. Grand designs
Putin pitches for a new security architecture.
Vladimir Putin said he wanted a "reliable security architecture" in Asia, during a visit to Vietnam Thursday. Washington said Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Kritenbrink would visit Hanoi on Friday to ensure a "free and open" Indo-Pacific.
INTELLIGENCE. Putin has done more than anyone to reinvigorate Europe’s security architecture but Asia, which lacks the network of an EU or NATO, is riper for disruption. The US’s “Indo-Pacific” strategy has Vietnam at the centre, but without a credible trade pact there’s less incentive to commit to the Western camp. Hanoi, among others, has instead cultivated a so-called “bamboo diplomacy” of flexible semi-alignment with each of Washington, Moscow and Beijing.
FOR BUSINESS. Other than arms and energy, Russia has even less to offer Vietnam, but Putin’s visit has nonetheless been welcomed as a way to keep the US and China at a distance. Like most of the region, Vietnam wants a multipolar order, despite its economic growth under the US-led one. And (perhaps understandably), it doesn’t see Washington as purely benign. As hardliners continue to take over the Communist Party’s apparatus, this trend will only continue.
THAILAND. Having it baht ways
Bangkok attempts to balance competing interests.
Thailand hoped to join the BRICS at this October's summit in Russia, an official said Thursday. The OECD said Tuesday it had opened accession talks with Bangkok. Ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra was indicted for defaming the monarchy.
INTELLIGENCE. Bangkok says it can be a “bridge” between the OECD and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. And it seems to want to be a bridge to the BRICS as well. But multipolarity will only grow more difficult as each of the respective poles demand more integration and alignment. Thailand is likewise trying to balance popular calls for liberalisation – it recently legalised same-sex marriage – with establishment demands for royalist devotion.
FOR BUSINESS. As Thailand pursues social reform – it has also removed gender-specific terms from the civil code; two years ago, it decriminalised marijuana – it is clamping down on political rights. Amid Thaksin’s latest charge, the progressive Move Forward party, which came first in rigged elections, is on the brink of a court-ordered dissolution. The tensions of this internal balance will similarly complicate Thailand’s struggle to improve business attractiveness.
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PERU. 36 views of Fujimori
Losing the support of her base, Dina Boluarte may face an old foe.
President Dina Boluarte's approval rating among CEOs has fallen from 71% to 12% in a year, a local Ipsos poll this week found. Ex-president Alberto Fujimori said Wednesday he had joined his daughter Keiko's right-wing Popular Force party.
INTELLIGENCE. Having been controversially pardoned last year by Boluarte, Fujimori has now seemingly returned to politics, thought the octogenarian former dictator has less chance than Keiko, who came second in 2021’s vote, of returning to power. Elections are due to be held by 2026, though there have been several attempts to bring them forward. Most Peruvians say they are undecided, but Popular Force now consistently tops opinion surveys.
FOR BUSINESS. Boluarte has never allied with the Fujimoris, though has attempted to woe their conservative base with economic growth and reform. Yet her delivery has enraged everyday Peruvians, who have also baulked at alleged corruption. And while GDP grew at an annualised 5.28% in April (the highest rate in 32 months) it’s mainly been seen in snarled mining traffic. Boluarte wants to fix Peru's infrastructure. China is assisting. She visits Beijing this month.
CLIMATE. More heat than light
A messy collision between faith and science.
Around 1,000 were estimated Thursday to have died during this year's Hajj due to heatstroke. Activists threw paint on private jets, after earlier vandalising Stonehenge. Hawaii settled with a group of indigenous youth over climate policies.
INTELLIGENCE. Religion’s role in weather isn’t new. Faith leaders, from the Dalai Lama to the Aga Khan, have frequently advocated greater climate action. Sometimes this has had impact – as with the Pope’s 2015 encyclical – other times it has backfired, as it was when an anti-oil vicar attacked a copy of Magna Carta last month (the reaction of Stonehenge-worshiping druids has been varied). But overall, and as with much in religion, it has led to division.
FOR BUSINESS. Government and civic action on climate change was dealt a blow with a routing of green parties this month in Europe. Business and technological efforts, leading to cheaper EVs and solar panels, despite the rising consumption of fossil fuels, have fared better. Yet tariffs and trade restrictions on such goods, many made in China, could slow the green transition. And while China has doubtlessly subsidised green industries, it’s by no means alone.