Ukraine, Russia: Shock and Oreshnik
Also: Israel, Palestine, the US, Brazil, Taiwan, and China.
The five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. With an attack on Dnipro, Moscow warns Washington.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. An ICC arrest warrant will help Netanyahu, and Putin.
UNITED STATES. Trump’s transition team is showing early signs of stress.
BRAZIL. Bolsonaro is formally charged with a 2022 coup attempt.
TAIWAN. CHINA. Taipei races to preserve its remaining alliances.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Shock and Oreshnik
With an attack on Dnipro, Moscow warns Washington.
Moscow confirmed Thursday it had launched a hypersonic ballistic missile on the city of Dnipro. The Pentagon said it had been notified beforehand. Vladimir Putin said Russia "had the right" to attack states who supply Ukraine weapons.
INTELLIGENCE. The “Oreshnik” intermediate-range missile appears to be based on an ICBM, hence Ukraine’s early reports of Russia using a nuclear-potential weapon (albeit with a conventional warhead). Oreshnik, a prototype, could probably be nuclear-armed, and travelling at Mach-10, would appear difficult to intercept – which the reason it was used – but Russia unlikely has many to expend, so the strike should be seen more as a warning than as an escalation.
FOR BUSINESS. The strike took out part of a Ukrainian weapons factory but a militarily more consequential development overnight may have been a report that the town of Velyka Novosilka had been captured, overturning a major Russian defeat from early 2023, and opening up a new direction in Moscow’s attempt to seize all of Donetsk – a region the Kremlin has declared to be Russian, and which will likely be a red line for any future peace negotiations.
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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Unwarranted
An ICC arrest warrant will help Netanyahu, and Putin.
The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants Thursday for Benjamin Netanyahu plus Israel's former defence minister, Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Deif, who's been dead since July. The US slammed the move.
INTELLIGENCE. Defenders of the court and its prosecutors have said it had little choice, but cases like this are always political and