Ukraine, Russia: Strike a pose
Also: Cuba, Venezuela, Turkey, China, and climate change.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Strike a pose
Western escalation is largely symbolic, for now.
Kyiv had used US weapons to strike inside Russian territory, a member of the Senate Committee on Armed Services said Wednesday. The Kremlin suggested it would be willing to target any French instructors deployed to Ukraine.
INTELLIGENCE. Ukraine allegedly used US-supplied HIMARS rockets to attack Belgorod, yet this was certainly not the first time Western weapons had been used on Russian soil. Similarly, it would be unusual if Western troops were not already on the ground (a US official recently mentioned British commandos). Still, the increasing directness of the conflict is dangerous as it gives both sides less political cover to back down, including in upcoming peace talks.
FOR BUSINESS. Alleged Russian conspirators left five empty coffins beneath the Eiffel Tower Saturday. So far, so symbolic, but the political reaction in the West may change should those coffins become real. In the meantime, the war remains one of attrition, with the West’s key contribution an ongoing supply of arms. The Pentagon last week expanded Lockheed Martin’s HIMARS contract by $2 billion. Rheinmetall is eyeing HIMARS production in Germany.
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CUBA. RUSSIA. Second Fidel
Moscow threatens wargames and weapons in the Caribbean.
Moscow could deploy missiles within striking distance of the US and Europe if they continued to allow Ukraine to attack Russian targets, Vladimir Putin said Wednesday. Russian ships had been spotted en route to Cuba, US officials said.
INTELLIGENCE. Russians in Cuba is an old trope with none of the shock value of 1962. Still, alongside Venezuela and Nicaragua, it provides a useful exercise ground for Russia’s navy during a US election year, as well as a reminder that Washington’s Monroe Doctrine remains full of holes. For Europe, Russia continues to expand its reach in North and West Africa. Sergei Lavrov Wednesday offered more aid to Burkina Faso, following a visit to Guinea and Congo.
FOR BUSINESS. Havana was a financial burden to Moscow in the Cold War. And while it remains happy to thumb its nose at the US, any serious re-involvement in US-Russian politics would come at a high price. In the meantime, Cuba is growing closer to the US in subtle ways. Its small businesses have been relieved from US sanctions. Its officials have been given tours of the Miami airport. It has quietly been removed from Washington’s list of terrorist sponsors.
VENEZUELA. Method in the Maduro
The regime shows few signs of worry.
Brazil called on Venezuela Wednesday to allow foreign election monitors, days after Caracas withdrew permission to EU observers. Members of the Venezuelan opposition sought a pause in the sale of Citgo, pending the election's result.
INTELLIGENCE. Dictator Nicolas Maduro is happy to send push-pull messages on Venezuelan democracy, oil sales, and even a threatened invasion of Guyana as he works up to stealing next month’s election without risking too much of a US backlash. He is counting on the continued tolerance of fellow socialist leaders in Brazil and Colombia, as well as the West’s distractions elsewhere, and worries about migration and energy prices. He will likely be vindicated.
FOR BUSINESS. Maduro has been president since 2013. His predecessor, Hugo Chavez, ran Venezuela from 1999. Both experienced worse challenges than those posed today. And even if the court-ordered sale of Citgo Petroleum proceeds in the US, those interests are a rounding error for Venezuela's state-owned oil giant, PDVSA, which has been happy to squander its wealth. And there are plenty of companies willing to trade with Caracas should sanctions allow.
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TURKEY. CHINA. Asia major
Ankara deepens ties with Beijing, though not without friction.
Turkey's foreign minister visited Xinjiang Wednesday, the first Turkish official to do so since 2012. Hakan Fidan said Ankara respected Beijing’s sovereignty but called for Muslim, ethnic-Turkic Uyghurs to be allowed to "live their values".
INTELLIGENCE. Fidan’s comments were the minimum he could have credibly made as Turkey tries to balance its newfound advocacy for Muslims everywhere with its desire to deepen ties with China, including via new transport corridors through Central Asia and the Caucasus. Despite also being a NATO ally, Turkey hopes to do this through membership of the BRICS, as Fidan suggested at a press conference on Monday. Russia said it welcomed the idea.
FOR BUSINESS. Turkey is already performing multiple highwire acts in the Middle East and Black Sea. It may find balancing the US and China even harder. Yet in good company, with the Turkic-speaking states of ex-Soviet Central Asia also seeking strategic equilibrium, Turkey might just pull it off. And as it manages to get inflation under control and build its growing leadership in the Levant and Africa, it could soon have the makings of a born-again great power.
CLIMATE. Snowball’s chance
The UN issues warnings, but fewer are listening.
The world was on the "highway to climate hell" the UN said Wednesday, urging restrictions on advertising by fossil fuel companies alongside other measures. The past month was the warmest May on record, the EU’s satellite service said.
INTELLIGENCE. The warning, made by Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, was only the latest in a series of fiery sermons. But as the ability to shock fades and cynicism builds, such pronouncements risk alienating publics more concerned with economic issues, not to mention firms with the means to produce cleaner energy at scale. And ahead of the next UN climate summit in Azerbaijan (and following one in Dubai), they also risk alienating governments.
FOR BUSINESS. As in many (if not most) global challenges, businesses, not diplomats, will offer the solutions.There are reasons to be increasingly optimistic about green energy. US researchers have recently developed a cost-efficient carbon capture to methanol process. Toyota has claimed a breakthrough in mass-produced solid-state electric batteries. Direct electrification technologies are falling in cost, allowing heat pumps to compete with gas boilers.