Ukraine, Russia: Terms and conditions

Also: Israel, Lebanon, China, Indonesia, and Benin.

How the peace congress receives its first practical suggestion, Udo Keppler, 1913, illustration in Puck (74:1915), Library of Congress, Washington DC.

In today’s dispatch:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Moscow and Kyiv set out their stipulations.

• ISRAEL. LEBANON. Netanyahu agrees to talks as the IDF prepares for invasion.

• CHINA. Beijing lobs an ICBM into the South Pacific.

• INDONESIA. Prabowo reaches out to everyone all at once.

• BENIN. Another day, another attempted putsch.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Terms and conditions

Moscow and Kyiv set out their stipulations.

Vladimir Putin said Russia had changed its strategic doctrine Wednesday, allowing for the use of nuclear weapons if attacked with conventional missiles. Volodymyr Zelensky said Moscow was planning to strike Ukrainian nuclear plants.

INTELLIGENCE. Zelensky is in the US to negotiate the use of long-range missiles and get Washington’s agreement to his peace plan. Indications are that this is dead on arrival. Democrats are giving him a hearing, but Republicans are starting to turn their backs, following Donald Trump, who said Wednesday even the “worst deal” would be better than the status quo. Indeed, with the Donetsk front collapsing, the focus is now on the terms of an eventual armistice.

FOR BUSINESS. A ceasefire is highly unlikely before the US election, but some form of agreement will likely come soon. Usually, it would be Washington setting terms, but Ukraine is running low on equipment and the US, whichever party wins in November, cannot provision it forever. Gaps in the West’s defence sector have been exposed by the war. Greater investment will be needed before the next major conflict, possibly involving China, darkens the horizon.

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ISRAEL. LEBANON. Down to the ground

Netanyahu agrees to talks as the IDF prepares for invasion.

Benjamin Netanyahu gave a green light late Wednesday to talks over a 21-day ceasefire in Lebanon, as proposed by the US and France at a UN Security Council crisis meeting. Israel’s army chief told troops to prepare for a ground invasion.

INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu, who will address the UN on Friday, is likely not bluffing over a ground assault. Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah targets and personnel have