Ukraine, Russia: Warning shot

Also: Taiwan, China, Israel, Egypt, Senegal, and mpox.

Nuclear II, László Moholy-Nagy, oil on canvas, Milwaukee Art Museum, Wisconsin.

In today’s dispatch:

• RUSSIA. UKRAINE. Putin sends his clearest message yet.

• TAIWAN. CHINA. Fears of a Sino-US conflict are off the mark.

• ISRAEL. EGYPT. Washington rewards Cairo as Rafah is cleared.

• SENEGAL. Faye calls an election after a visit to Mali.

• MPOX. Relative containment is no excuse for complacency.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Warning shot

Putin sends his clearest message yet.

Vladimir Putin said the West would be at war if it approved long-range missile strikes into Russia. Joe Biden was expected to agree Friday the UK’s request to use Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia, paving the way for US ATACMS.

INTELLIGENCE. Storm Shadows have US components, and Keir Starmer, who is in Washington, won’t want to get ahead of Biden on Ukraine, particularly with the Pentagon still opposing the use of long-range capabilities. Yet Congressional pressure is building, and Kamala Harris is now campaigning on greater support for Kyiv. The White House may find a middle way, where use is allowed but red lines on targets are clear. Yet that would require calling Putin's bluff, again.

FOR BUSINESS. Should the US agree to long-range strikes inside Russia, it should be of no surprise if Russia retaliates on NATO territory. This is unlikely to lead to nuclear war, but such caveats will be of no comfort to markets when the first missile strikes, possibly somewhere like Germany, with a political culture averse to escalation. Warning shots may have already been fired in the Black Sea, with a Russian air missile hitting a grain ship near the Romanian coast.

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TAIWAN. CHINA. A fate not sealed

Fears of a Sino-US conflict are off the mark.

A US Navy SEAL team has spent over a year training for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the Financial Times said. China would "crush" any incursion into its territory, the People’s Liberation Army told media at the Xiangshan defence forum.

INTELLIGENCE. Preparing for all contingencies, no matter how remote, is the job of a military. Another is issuing veiled threats.