Ukraine, the US: After exhausting the alternatives
Also: Israel, China, Ecuador, and the Sahel.
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UKRAINE. UNITED STATES. After exhausting the alternatives
A late package may not win the war but could secure the peace.
The House passed $60.84 billion for Ukraine Saturday, 311 to 112. Of the appropriation, most will go to replenishing US stockpiles and operations. GOP hardliners vowed Sunday to continue their campaign against Speaker Mike Johnson.
INTELLIGENCE. Most House Republicans voted against the measure but with a signal of support from Donald Trump and the package now behind him, Johnson will likely continue in his role until November. By passing the bill, even reluctantly, Johnson can now refute claims the Republicans are working for Putin. Moreover, he can help position Washington and Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow from a slightly stronger position, even if the land war is already lost.
FOR BUSINESS. While just $14 billion will go to weapons for Kyiv, it’s enough to complicate Moscow’s westward push. And while it won’t be enough to remove Russia from its occupied territories, it will increase the chances of a settlement, whether at upcoming talks in Switzerland or elsewhere. A measure to seize $5 billion of frozen Russian assets in the US, and encourage the EU, which holds $280 billion, to do the same, is an additional point of leverage.
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ISRAEL. UNITED STATES. Undoing the influence
Additional aid weakens Washington’s leverage.
The House passed $26.38 billion for Israel Saturday, 366 to 58. Of the appropriation, $9 billion is for aid to Gaza and other humanitarian crises, but the bill prevents the US from funding the United Nations Relief and Works Agency.
INTELLIGENCE. As expected, the measure sent a strong signal of support for Israel, but at a time when Benjamin Netanyahu is working at cross-purposes to US regional policy, and tempting an all-out war with Iran, the signal may ultimately hurt Joe Biden. It has already sparked outrage on the Democratic left. Activists described it as a “point of no return.” It may spark outrage elsewhere if it allows Netanyahu to continue ignoring Biden's calls for de-escalation.
FOR BUSINESS. The White House has attempted balance by leaking threats to sanction the IDF’s Netzah Yehuda battalion in the West Bank. But with this group largely composed of the ultra-orthodox fringe, it’s unlikely to be a real deterrence. A stronger point of leverage would be to support Palestine’s UN membership, but the US has essentially foreclosed this with last week’s veto of a resolution expected to be backed by almost every other member state.
CHINA. UNITED STATES. Kitchen sink feeling
Congress throws some stuff at the wall.
The House passed $8.12 billion for Taiwan and other Indo-Pacific security measures Saturday, 385 to 34. Of the appropriation, $2 billion will go towards allied military finance and $3.3 billion for submarine facilities and construction.
INTELLIGENCE. The submarine funding is a boost for the AUKUS pact with Britain and Australia, following concerns a depleted Virginia Class program would have no room for allies, but it remains to be seen if $3.3 billion is enough to supplement one of the Pentagon’s most difficult and costly endeavours. A separate bill, the “21st Century Peace through Strength Act”, passed 360-58, including measures to ban TikTok and limit Chinese purchases of Iranian oil.
FOR BUSINESS. Taken together, the bills look threatening to Beijing. But beyond TikTok – whose forced sale or ban may only hurt Democrat votes, judging by the demographic that uses it – there’s little to fundamentally curtail thawing relations. Action on fentanyl and Iran was expected (and China has proven adept at sanctions-busting). US military spending in Asia is still a fraction of the Middle East. Antony Blinken is still expected to visit Beijing on Wednesday.
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ECUADOR. Payback time
Voters support the president’s war on gangs but not his reforms.
Questions relating to drugs and organised crime were backed in a referendum Sunday but labour and investment proposals were rejected. The director of Ecuador's prison service was killed days after a second mayor was murdered.
INTELLIGENCE. Daniel Noboa, who is seeking a full term next year, has campaigned on economics and crime, but reintroducing investor-state dispute settlement and fixing labour laws has not proven as popular as cracking down on Ecuador’s gangs. Noboa will hope his new powers, which will involve the military, will be enough to build a mandate for wider reforms. The conditions that have allowed gang violence to flourish will otherwise remain the same.
FOR BUSINESS. Much of Ecuador’s problems are out of its control. Cartel ceasefires in Colombia have sent cocaine production soaring and upended established trafficking routes. But a stronger economy and better infrastructure would help. Ecuador’s per capita GDP is a quarter less than Colombia’s. In the meantime, Colombia’s Gustavo Petro seems unlikely to change course, though 70,000 marched in Bogota Sunday against a further leftwards drift.
THE SAHEL. Chad reaction
The West’s security presence is further in doubt.
Chad's air force asked the US to remove its personnel from a French base in N'Djamena, media reported Friday. The US would begin to remove troops from a base in Niger, Washington said Saturday, after being asked to leave on 17 March.
INTELLIGENCE. Chad's interim leader, Mahamat Idriss Deby, told French journalists Saturday Chad was "not a slave who wants to change masters", and Niger's junta has denied it will replace Western personnel with Russian ones, but it is hard to not to see Moscow's hand in these moves. An exit from Chad would disrupt regional counter-terrorism and counter-narcotics efforts though there remain plenty of French forces there, including those expelled from Niger.
FOR BUSINESS. A French retreat, following a US one – should it happen – would leave a strategic void in a volatile region. Yet it would at least mean the West would not need to continue backing Deby’s increasingly repressive regime. Chad is arming the rebel Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, helping the remnants of Russia’s Wagner Group in Libya, and is due to hold phony elections on 6 May. Deby reportedly killed his chief rival, a nephew, in late February.