Ukraine, the US: The House divides
Also: Russia, Singapore, Haiti, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
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UKRAINE. UNITED STATES. The House divides
A funding bill is set up for failure.
Speaker Mike Johnson told House Republicans Monday he would hold four separate votes on the Senate's $95 billion foreign aid package, passed in February. Three of the votes will each deal with Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan respectively.
INTELLIGENCE. Johnson's speakership has been short, but his nine lives are already running out. Having survived close calls on the budget and intelligence legislation, he likely faced a motion to vacate from members of the GOP’s isolationist wing if he brought forward a single vote on the Senate’s original package, which has languished for two months in the House. While most Republicans will likely back aid for Israel and Taiwan, aid for Ukraine could still fail.
FOR BUSINESS. Even if the House has the numbers to approve Ukrainian aid with Democratic support, most expect it to be in the form of a loan, which many minority legislators will want to oppose. And even if a loan were approved in the region of the Senate’s original $60 billion, it won’t quickly translate into munitions and air defences. To assist Ukraine, the time to pass the bill was in October, when the White House requested it, and Johnson became speaker.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Mayday
Kyiv warns on Moscow’s plans as metals sanctions backfire.
Ukraine's top military commander said Sunday Russia aimed to capture the city of Chasiv Yar by 9 May, before heading to Kramatorsk. Prices jumped as sanctions were introduced on the trading of Russian aluminium, copper and nickel.
INTELLIGENCE. Chasiv Yar may fall earlier than 9 May, when Russia marks its victory in WWII, particularly without extra Western aid. Its suburbs are already occupied. Nearby lines have been breached. Daily strikes in Kharkiv and Sumy to the north could reopen a new front. Ukraine has sought to mobilise more troops, lowering the draft by two years to 25, boosting volunteer payments, and letting some prisoners (like Russia) serve their terms on the front.
FOR BUSINESS. The mobilisation measures, which have taken several months and 4,000 amendments to pass the Rada, also include a contentious law to keep troops in the field indefinitely. This speaks to Kyiv’s desperation, and to the increasing political vulnerability of Volodymyr Zelensky. Even if it can outlast Russia militarily, Ukraine is starting to lose the narrative war. Zelensky’s term expires on 20 May, though he claims martial law overrides this requirement.
SINGAPORE. Making up the leeway
Lawrence Wong has big shoes to fill.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong Monday said he would hand the premiership to deputy Lawrence Wong on 15 May. Singapore recorded Q1 growth of 2.7% year-on-year Friday, an increase on the previous quarter but lower than forecast.
INTELLIGENCE. After Lee’s 19 and his father’s 31 years in power (an unrelated Goh Chok Tong led for 13 in between), Wong has a hard act to follow, particularly as the People’s Action Party recovers from several ministerial scandals in 2023. Polls are rare, but anecdotally the PAP has lost favour, with voters angry that longstanding grievances, such as high prices and crowded streets, have not been fixed. And voters will feel less loyal to a PM without the surname Lee.
FOR BUSINESS. Elections are due by November 2025. The PAP, with 79 seats to the opposition's 10, is likely to win, but Singapore’s districts, gerrymandered to ensure racial and income balance, have a fatal flaw: the factors that make them safe for the PAP today could lead to unified swing against it, with parliament completely flipped. The opposition would likely continue the PAP’s technocratic legacy, but Singapore would lose its reputation for ironclad stability.
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HAITI. Council of despair
A new executive body could be more transitional than presidential.
The US and UN welcomed Friday's establishment of Haiti's Transitional Presidential Council, which will prepare for elections after the resignation of ex-prime minister Ariel Henry. Local politicians criticised the move as meaningless.
INTELLIGENCE. The TPC, enacted by a barely functional government and beholden to foreign actors, lacks legitimacy but may serve the purpose of allowing Kenya and other would-be contributors to a UN-backed mission to send armed police. Haiti’s capital is otherwise in the grip of gang warfare. The airport is closed. Aid ships have been looted. Government districts are surrounded. Gang boss Barbecue Cherizier said he would kill anyone who joined the TPC.
FOR BUSINESS. The UN-backed mission, if it happens, will need an estimated 5,000 officers to be effective. And without US boots this is unlikely. Besides Kenya, only Benin and the Bahamas have pledged definitive personnel. The gangs will otherwise remain in charge. And while a feared exodus of refugees hasn’t landed in Florida, tensions remain at the Dominican border and 200,000 are internally displaced. Many have been spotted waving Russian flags.
ETHIOPIA. SOMALIA. Avoiding Addisaster
Addis Ababa tries to put the genie back in the bottle.
Eritrea said Friday its border with Ethiopia had been "demarcated for the last time". Local media said Sunday the leaders of Djibouti and Kenya were facilitating secrets talks between Ethiopia and Somalia to end a months-long dispute.
INTELLIGENCE. Ethiopia in January announced an MoU with the breakaway region of Somaliland to potentially trade diplomatic recognition for port access. Since then, the internal security situations in both countries have worsened, with rising violence and members of their fragile federations demanding new concessions. A truce between Addis and Mogadishu could thus be in the works, though the external actors that have since intervened may think otherwise.
FOR BUSINESS.Ethiopia and Somalia would be complex enough if it weren’t for the overlay of Emirati, Egyptian, Kenyan, Eritrean, US, Russian, and Turkish interests. Nor if it weren’t for resurgent piracy, or conflicts in nearby Yemen and Sudan (plus further afield in the Congo and Sahel). Having stirred Somali separatism amid a domestic economic crisis, Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed is having other thoughts. An IMF loan was delayed last month due to a lack of reforms.