Uncertainty and agitation
Ukraine, Russia, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, the Philippines, and Brazil.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump’s mental load is a gift to the Kremlin.
IRAN. As the blockade extends, Tehran threatens “unprecedented” action.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. The IDF admits the ceasefire does not exist.
THE PHILIPPINES. Another impeachment attempt won’t save Marcos.
BRAZIL. A revolt against partisan jurists could hurt Lula’s re-election.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm helping businesses and investors to get ahead of the world. Connect with me on LinkedIn to learn more. And if you’re not receiving the full edition, upgrade below.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Handler with care
Trump's mental load is a gift to the Kremlin.
Donald Trump said he and Vladimir Putin spoke Wednesday about “a little bit of a ceasefire” and that the wars in Ukraine and Iran might have a “similar timetable”. Trump said all of Ukraine’s ships and planes, and most of its drones had gone.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump appears to have mixed his talking points on Iran and Ukraine, but either way, the confusion is a gift to Kremlin propaganda. Russian influencers have gone on to claim Putin had agreed to peace once Kyiv was seized. Trump’s subsequent threat to review a possible reduction of troops in Germany has also been amplified. With drone attacks belying an effective frontline stalemate, Trump’s brain is now the war’s most important battleground.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump will use a likely ceasefire around Russia’s V-Day parade as proof of his negotiating brilliance and narrative control, but such truces have become standard, like those on Orthodox Easter. Many may now wonder if Putin is indeed the one controlling Trump. More likely it’s that the US has another president in cognitive decline (or at least, judging by his 4 am tweets, under great stress). His Ukraine ambassador’s resignation may prove the point.
IRAN. Stuffed pigs might fly
As the blockade extends, Tehran threatens “unprecedented” action.
Crude extended gains in Asian trade Thursday after Trump vowed to continue the blockade of Hormuz. Trump said Iran was “choking like a stuffed pig” and “we’re not flying anymore” for talks. Tehran said it may take “unprecedented action”.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump and Pete Hegseth continue to call the war an “astounding