Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump picks on Zelensky because the other guys scare him.
FRANCE. Thanks to the left, the centre goes up in flames.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu’s endorsement is a mixed blessing.
IRAN. Preparations continue for another round of hostilities.
JAPAN. Scandal and inflation end the prime minister’s honeymoon.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Bully for you, Vlad
Trump picks on Zelensky because the other guys scare him.
Defending his latest sanctions waiver, Donald Trump said he wanted to keep Vladimir Putin at the “table” while Volodymyr Zelensky didn’t “want the war to end”. Putin had asked Trump for a meeting with Xi Jinping, the Wall Street Journal said.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump is hitting Kyiv because he thinks it’s weaker than Moscow and Tehran. Like any bully, it doesn’t matter if it’s acceptable or fair. Yet under this logic, if Trump’s move doesn’t lower oil prices, or improve his midterm odds, he may return to escalation. Zelensky may hope it’s on his side, and has talked up restored intelligence sharing (never mind that Russian missiles keep getting through). But more likely it’ll be escalation on Iran, and against him.
FOR BUSINESS. Brent futures fell 2% on the waivers, but Iran, not Ukraine, is the real cause of energy shortages. Thus, while Trump may look tough to his base while picking on Zelensky, he just looks more trapped to everyone else. Like Ukraine continuing to attack Russian energy infrastructure, the EU may call his bluff on retaliation, should it punish SpaceX for its role in the throttling of Kyiv’s defences. Whether it can do so without domestic cost is another question.
FRANCE. Le Pendulum
Thanks to the left, the centre goes up in flames.
Weekend rioting saw 2,400 arrests and widespread arson, including to the historic Limoges town hall. Emmanuel Macron said “nothing explains it.” Marine Le Pen said it was explained by “a profound crisis of trust.” Her allies blamed migrants.
INTELLIGENCE. Like the French Revolution, it's too soon to say, but with betting