Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

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Geopolitical Dispatch
Geopolitical Dispatch
Unstable GENIUS

Unstable GENIUS

The US, El Salvador, Colombia, Iran, the UK, and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

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Michael Feller
Jul 18, 2025
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Geopolitical Dispatch
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Unstable GENIUS
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The 1879 eruption of Lago de Ilopango, Juan José Laínez, 1908, oil on canvas, National Art Collection, El Salvador.

The five things you need to know today:

  • UNITED STATES. EL SALVADOR. New crypto rules could blow up.

  • COLOMBIA. Spurned by Washington, Petro gets radical.

  • IRAN. Talk of war gives cover to hardliners.

  • BRITAIN. Lowering the voting age could backfire on Labour.

  • BOSNIA. A fight over road tolls reignites calls for secession.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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UNITED STATES. EL SALVADOR. Stablecoins, unstable places

New crypto rules could blow up.

Congress sent stablecoin legislation known as the GENIUS Act to the White House Thursday after Democrats joined Republicans by 308 to 122. Tether, the biggest dollar-pegged stablecoin, reached a market capitalisation of $160 billion.

INTELLIGENCE. The bill aims to clarify regulation, and ensure US dominance of cryptocurrencies. Yet some analysts have warned it could effectively lead to a ban on Tether, which provides around 90% of the volume for Bitcoin trading, and holds around 2% of outstanding US Treasury bills, on par with Germany. Tether, headquartered in regulation-light El Salvador, is seen by many as being in contravention of US counterterrorism and anti-money laundering rules.

FOR BUSINESS. Flows could move to US issuers like Circle, but a choppy transition might not just hurt Bitcoin, now worth more than $120,000, but other markets. Much of Bitcoin’s price has been attributed to alleged manipulation on Tether. Nobody really knows. Having moved its domicile from the British Virgin Islands in January, it is now overseen by a place best known for volcanoes, prison camps and a leader who calls himself the coolest dictator in the world.

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COLOMBIA. Left to his own devices

Spurned by Washington, Petro gets radical.

Colombia and Venezuela announced a joint economic zone after Bogota hosted 12 countries to agree new sanctions against Israel. Gustavo Petro said he would reshuffle his cabinet ahead of a redesign of his "total peace" strategy.

INTELLIGENCE. Bogota was traditionally among Washington's most stalwart allies,

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