Venezuela: Maduro to measure
Also: Israel, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, France, and the WTO.
In today’s dispatch:
VENEZUELA. VENEZUELA. Maduro to measure
ISRAEL. LEBANON. The death of 12 children will trigger a response, but unlikely a war.
SRI LANKA. A test for the island, plus China and India.
FRANCE. Paris blames local anarchists, not foreign actors, for rail sabotage.
E-COMMERCE. A win for the World Trade Organization may be short-lived.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
VENEZUELA. Maduro to measure
A rigged election tricks no one, but nor will it change much.
Nicolas Maduro claimed early Monday to have won 51% of votes in Sunday’s national election. The opposition said it had won 70%. The US said it had "serious concerns". The EU urged "full transparency". China sent its congratulations.
INTELLIGENCE. It’s almost certain the result was rigged, but by declaring only a modest margin of victory, Maduro has shown he recognises his unpopularity, as well as the limits of his soft dictatorship. A face-saving deal with the opposition, potentially to run local governments, is likely, which should also limit the likelihood of additional sanctions, which in any case have reached their limit. Any further economic punishment would only hurt Venezuela’s poor.
FOR BUSINESS. The West’s tepid response indicates a similar lack of enthusiasm for further pain. More stringent measures would only drive Maduro further to China and Russia and his citizens further to the US border. They would also risk promised escalation from Maduro, who last week warned of a “bloodbath” if he lost and last year threatened to invade neighbouring Guyana. Such a move would not only endanger regional stability, but global oil markets.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Fear of Heights
The death of 12 children will trigger a response, but unlikely a war.
Twelve were killed and 42 injured Saturday in a rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams. Israel and the US blamed Hezbollah, which denied culpability, attributing the deaths to an Iron Dome projectile.
INTELLIGENCE. Hezbollah was likely responsible, but its denials indicate the deaths were an accident and it seeks de-escalation. Israel has vowed to retaliate, but