Venezuela: Out of leftist field

Also: Israel, Palestine, Australia, New Zealand, China, the Pacific, and mpox.

Roses and Stars, Raúl Martínez, 1972, oil on canvas, Farber Collection, New York.

In today’s dispatch:

• VENEZUELA. Maduro’s friends propose an off-ramp.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Negotiations, at best, buy time for diplomacy.

• AUSTRALIA. NEW ZEALAND. Pacific allies deepen their ties to Washington.

• CHINA. THE PACIFIC. Palau warns of diplomatic coercion.

• MPOX. The world wakes up to a warzone crisis.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

VENEZUELA. Out of leftist field

Maduro’s friends propose an off-ramp.

Brazil's president proposed Venezuela call a new election Thursday, with the White House saying it would support the move. Colombia's leader proposed Nicolas Maduro agree to a power-sharing arrangement with the opposition.

INTELLIGENCE. After weeks of diplomatic handwringing (and reprisals on the streets) the proposals have been slammed by Venezuela’s opposition. This reaction was likely anticipated, so if Maduro uses this as an excuse to do nothing then at least his neighbours (and Washington) can say they tried. A more substantial compromise, of allowing the opposition to win next year’s local elections, still seems possible, but Maduro will remain in power either way.

FOR BUSINESS. Brazil’s Lula da Silva, who is hosting this year’s G20 summit, has squibbed an opportunity for global leadership but many of his left-wing supporters remain in thrall to Maduro, nostalgic for the promise of Venezuela’s Bolivarian revolution. Such sympathies have also coloured the response in Colombia and Mexico. Some 40% of Venezuelans meanwhile wish to leave the country, adding to the 20% who have already emigrated in the last decade.

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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Without ceasefire

Negotiations, at best, buy time for diplomacy.

Qatar said it urged Iran Thursday not to disrupt "progress" in ceasefire talks with a retaliatory attack. A Palestinian man was killed after Israeli settlers rampaged through a West Bank village. Gaza’s health ministry death toll reached 40,000.

INTELLIGENCE. Donald Trump slammed Kamala Harris Thursday for “always demanding a ceasefire” but the appearance and promise of talks, while