Vietnam: Thi's a crowd
Also: Ukraine, Russia, France, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and South Sudan.
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VIETNAM. Thi’s a crowd
Hanoi sacks a third senior leader.
Thuong Thi Mai resigned from the Politburo Thursday, the third exit in recent months, having been accused of "violations and shortcomings". Four new members were appointed to the body, including former central banker Le Minh Hung.
INTELLIGENCE. Mai, the only woman at the top of Vietnam's Communist Party, had been a presidential contender, but has been swept aside in Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong's ongoing “blazing furnace” purge. The instability has spooked investors, who had otherwise sought to avoid the uncertainty of China, to the north. Yet as Trong seeks to emulate Xi Jinping (including by hosting an expected visit from Vladimir Putin), transparency isn’t front of mind.
FOR BUSINESS.Vietnam risks eroding its advantage as a China alternative just as Indonesia and the Philippines catch up. It also risks eroding the regional strategies of the US and Japan, which had seen it as key to the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Vietnam is well-placed to exploit US-China tariffs, particularly on EVs, but doubts over its market status, and worries about its trade surplus, may give it a short window.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Set in trainer
Further signals of a Western deployment.
A NATO mission of military trainers to Ukraine "appeared inevitable", the New York Times said Thursday, noting comments from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The White House ruled out any immediate deployment.
INTELLIGENCE. After hints from France and Lithuania among others, plus reports of French foreign legionnaires in Donbas, momentum is building for eventual boots on the ground, even if they’re initially in the west of Ukraine, which has been spared the brunt of Russia’s assault. Still, an acknowledged presence risks escalating Moscow’s response, and is unlikely to be popular, with memories of the Vietnam War’s “Americanization” still fresh for many voters.
FOR BUSINESS. An attack on NATO troops in Ukraine, if not sent under NATO auspices, would probably not trigger Article V, but the mere risk that this could (and thus trigger World War III) would send markets into a spin. It’s otherwise unclear what the troops – trainers or not – would do, considering Ukraine’s main problem is a lack of air cover and artillery. Troops are indeed in short supply, but primarily because they lack adequate defensive equipment.
FRANCE. A far cry
Paris blames Baku for unrest in the Pacific.
Parts of New Caledonia had "escaped" state control, France's representative said Friday. Another 1,000 police were expected to arrive after scores were injured and two killed. France's interior minister blamed Azerbaijan for incitement.
INTELLIGENCE. Riots broke out in Noumea Monday after Paris passed a law to loosen voting restrictions on French citizens in the territory. The indigenous Kanaks, who have already lost three independence referendums, fear a further loss of political control against a larger number of ethnic French voters. Azerbaijan has nothing to do with the unrest but has allegedly convened messages of support for the Kanaks from other French overseas separatist movements.
FOR BUSINESS.Azerbaijan is unhappy with France over the latter’s support for Armenia in the Nagorno Karabakh dispute. Baku has furthermore grown closer to Moscow as Yerevan has drifted to the West. There’s the additional element of Turkey, which tends to oppose France on anything, and is Azerbaijan’s main ally. But all this is a distraction and says more about Emmanuel Macron’s government, which is widely seen as arrogant, both at home and abroad.
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HAITI. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. Two sides of the story
Chaos across the border may give Abinader a pyrrhic victory.
Dominican President Luis Abinader was in a strong position to win re-election, analysts said Friday, thanks to his stance on the border with Haiti, which shares the island of Hispaniola. Kenya said police could be deployed to Haiti next week.
INTELLIGENCE. Abinader is polling at 60%, enough to comfortably win Sunday's poll, thanks in part to a 164-kilometre wall he has built to keep Haitian migrants out. Yet for as long as Haiti is in crisis, the risk of gangs, drugs and refugees will remain, limiting Santo Domingo’s attractiveness to tourists and further securitising its economy. Once the vote is over, he will hope as anyone that Kenya’s overdue UN-backed police mission happens, and that Haiti is stabilised.
FOR BUSINESS. Kenya, until this week, was unwilling to put a timeline on its deployment but as soon as a date was announced another court injunction followed. Forces to support Haiti’s beleaguered security services may have to wait and, so far, there’s little evidence that anyone else, let alone the US, will step into the void alone. Haiti’s gangs meanwhile continue to run 80% of the capital. Its new transitional government is confined to the presidential palace.
SOUTH SUDAN. Commitment ceremony
A pledge for peace won’t survive underlying problems.
Juba signed a "commitment declaration" with armed opposition groups Thursday, following mediation talks in Kenya. The International Crisis Group Wednesday said South Sudan risked "economic meltdown" due to the war in Sudan.
INTELLIGENCE. The declaration’s details have not been released but it’s unlikely to matter. Irrespective of who signs what, actors will emerge from within South Sudan’s myriad factions to continue the de facto civil war, which has plagued the country since before independence from Sudan in 2011. Around 60% of South Sudan's population face hunger, while refugees from neighbouring conflicts have added to the misery. It is due to hold elections in December.
FOR BUSINESS. At stake are rich grazing pastures and richer oil reserves. Yet pipes that take the crude to the Red Sea burst in February and Sudan's own civil war has prevented repair. As petrodollars run out, South Sudan’s army had to cancel its 41st anniversary on Thursday. According to S&P Global, South Sudan's oil output fell to 60,000 barrels per day in April from 150,000 in February. A $12 billion oil sale deal signed with the UAE in December is in doubt.