Von der Leyen acts the lamb

The EU, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Iran, China, Taiwan, and the US.

Tête de lion, Henri Rousseau, oil on canvas, Musée des Beaux-Arts, Reims.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• EUROPEAN UNION. To win, the EU must behave like it’s lost.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump’s latest deadline will likely be ignored.

• ISRAEL. IRAN. Warnings are issued over Tehran’s nuclear program.

• CHINA. TAIWAN. A cancelled transit signals new vulnerabilities.

• UNITED STATES. The president can't escape Jeffrey Epstein.

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EUROPEAN UNION. Din of inequity

To win, the EU must behave like it’s lost.

The euro fell Monday as leaders panned Ursula von der Leyen's 15% tariff agreement with Donald Trump. France’s prime minister said the deal marked a "dark day". Germany’s chancellor said the economic damage would be "significant".

INTELLIGENCE. More details are expected Friday, but on the surface, the deal looks unfair to Europe, which could delay its ratification. Von der Leyen, already facing censure over the EU's budget and borders, may become the sacrificial lamb. Either way, the noise of defeat could prove politically expedient. Trump is all about the headlines. Having delivered the US a “win”, the slow and boring implementation of the fine print can be nudged in the EU’s favour.

FOR BUSINESS. Across all Trump's trade deals, past and present, there's a growing sense that nothing is permanent. Worries about the text of any current agreement, which could be easily overturned by Trump, if not the courts (appeals against his use of executive orders will be heard Friday), may be unnecessary. While the deal’s fallout will heap more pressure on countries with sensitive agricultural sectors, like France, it will ultimately be the US that pays the tariffs.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy. Our team of former diplomats and intelligence officials help businesses and investors around the world map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. It’s a date

Trump’s latest deadline will likely be ignored.

Donald Trump said Monday he would "make a new deadline of about 10 or 12 days" for Russia to make progress in ending the war with Ukraine, down from the 50 days given on 14 July. Moscow said the "ultimatum" could lead to war.

INTELLIGENCE. Judging from similar warnings issued to Hamas, the Houthis and