Waiting for a package deal

China, the US, South & Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Colombia, and the DRC.

Putting his foot down, John S Pughe, illustration in Puck (46:1172), 1899, Library of Congress, Washington DC.

The five things you need to know today:

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. Xi and Trump play economic chicken.

• CHINA. SOUTH & SOUTHEAST ASIA. Beijing doubles down on his near abroad.

• INDONESIA. Another dubious sovereign wealth proposal.

• COLOMBIA. After Trump’s shakedown, parody ensues.

• DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO. The Kivu conflict extends through Africa.

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CHINA. UNITED STATES. From pillar to post

Xi and Trump play economic chicken.

China launched dispute actions at the World Trade Organization Wednesday in the wake of US tariffs. The US Postal Service resumed package deliveries from China and Hong Kong after a pause to determine levy collection processes.

INTELLIGENCE. Among the Trump administration’s changes was the removal of ‘de minimis’ exemptions on imports worth under $800 (e.g., most goods on Temu, Amazon and Shein). This will help large retailers but cost online shoppers. Beijing may hope their inconvenience causes Washington to blink but Trump has indicated he’s in no hurry to speak to his counterpart. So far, Beijing’s countermeasures, including the WTO action, have been largely symbolic.

FOR BUSINESS. The WTO’s disputes panel is currently in abeyance (thanks also to Trump) and countermeasures on LNG and coal will simply reroute fungible exports. A probe against Google won’t make much difference to Alphabet. But China can hit the US if it wants to, by going after agriculture and politically exposed firms like Tesla. Neither wants mutually assured destruction, but they don’t want to look weak. New ways to signal conciliation will need to be found.

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CHINA. SOUTH & SOUTHEAST ASIA. Tributary stakes

Beijing doubles down on his near abroad.

Xi Jinping held separate meetings with the presidents of Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan Wednesday in the first working day of the Year of the Snake. The sultan of Brunei and the prime minister of Thailand arrived in Beijing for multi-day visits.

INTELLIGENCE. As developing countries reel from cancelled USAid projects, China is reviving its Belt and Road, which