War-war, not jaw-jaw
Iran, Venezuela, China, the UN, and social media.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Fake negotiations tick down to a false deadline.
VENEZUELA. Caracas proves an alluring regime-change counterfactual.
CHINA. Xi and Trump set a new date for their summit.
UNITED NATIONS. A vote on slavery is more about the present than the past.
SOCIAL MEDIA. The techlash builds strange bedfellows.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
IRAN. Talk is cheap
Fake negotiations tick down to a false deadline.
Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf reiterated Tehran would not surrender amid reports he was being persuaded by a temporary removal from a US-Israel "kill list". Ghalibaf warned an unnamed “regional country” against joining the war.
INTELLIGENCE. Ghalibaf, de facto leader since the death of Ali Larijani and while Mojtaba Khamenei remains in hiding, is tipped as Iran’s Delcy Rodriguez, but this remains highly speculative. Donald Trump may continue to jawbone talks, but preparations for escalation continue on both sides. Qeshm Island, near Bandar Abbas, not Kharg, is coming into view as a possible point of attack, joined by the UAE, though, per Calais in 1944, this could be a decoy.
FOR BUSINESS. By virtue of hosting US troops, Washington’s Gulf allies are no bystanders, even if they have tried to avoid direct involvement. Qatar has gone so far as to “disassociate” itself from the war, via remarks to the UN. Yet that may not help should a new stage commence this weekend, when Trump’s energy truce expires and the Marines arrive. And while, as before, Trump may TACO again on Monday, there’s still a lot of damage that could be done.
VENEZUELA. Pitch perfect
Caracas proves an alluring regime-change counterfactual.
Delcy Rodriguez spoke by video to a Miami investor forum Wednesday, projecting double-digit growth and stable regulations. Opposition figure Maria Corina Machado said oil production could quintuple under a democratic regime.
INTELLIGENCE. While the war in Iran goes off the rails, the peace in Venezuela is a