Warning shots
Iran, the US, Taiwan, Japan, and Vietnam.
The five things you need to know today:
IRAN. As a nuclear deal comes into view, opponents strike out.
UNITED STATES. Congress pushes back on the president’s plans.
TAIWAN. Lai Ching-te marks an uneasy anniversary.
JAPAN. Domestic scandals stymie Ishiba’s plans.
VIETNAM. Hanoi pushes the limits of its bamboo diplomacy.
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IRAN. Slings and arrows
As a nuclear deal comes into view, opponents strike out.
Crude prices jumped as much as 3.5% late Tuesday after CNN reported Israel was preparing a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said calls for Iran to stop enriching uranium were "excessive and outrageous".
INTELLIGENCE. It's no secret Israel and Khamenei oppose a deal that would not just upend the region’s strategic equilibrium but Tehran's balance of power. But while the chance of interruption is real, including from opponents within Washington, both presidents Donald Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian seem committed. Hostile rhetoric will continue until the deal's conclusion (and possibly beyond), but for now it remains, perhaps improbably, on track.
FOR BUSINESS. An Israeli strike against Iranian facilities would not just be viewed as an attack on Tehran but on Washington. The intelligence leak to CNN, if true, can thus be seen as a warning. Trump is separately said to be frustrated with Benjamin Netanyahu over the war in Gaza, with the UN warning of war crimes, and the EU and Britain reviewing their trade with the Jewish state. A strike on Iran would signal categorically that Netanyahu no longer cares.
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UNITED STATES. Dome truths
Congress pushes back on the president’s plans.
Donald Trump urged Congress Tuesday to agree his “big, beautiful” spending bill. Lawmakers expressed scepticism over a proposed $175 billion "Golden Dome" defence shield. Elon Musk said he would spend less money on political causes.
INTELLIGENCE. A key cudgel against fiscal hawks and social moderates in the Republican caucus had been the